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HRN Original Blog:
Handicapper's Corner

Sunday Play of the Day-4/14/2013

The 9th race at Aqueduct is a 1-mile Maiden Special Weight for NY-breds fillie/mares 3-years old and up. There appears to be an abundance of front runners insuring a quick pace to set things up for a late runner.

 

#3 Cherylwithans flashed some early foot last time out through slow fractions in a $16,000 maiden claimer. She should flash even more speed when adding blinkers today.

 

 

 

#4 What The Frost sat an ideal trip before flattening out in her debut last out going 6 furlongs at the same level. She could get trapped in a speed duel on the stretch out, but trainer Tony Dutrow is 36% with 2nd time starters, so with 2 good workouts an improved effort should be expected.

 

 

 

 

#5 Quiet Kiss is a puzzling first-time starter. She fired a bullet last time out over the Belmont main track, but the majority of her works are on turf. Trainer Tom Bush is 0 for his last 65 first time starters, but Quiet Kiss’ dam is NY-bred stakes placed and all her offspring have found the winner’s circle. Based on Bush’s lack of success with debut runners, Quiet Kiss is a fringe player at best.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#6 Carole Lee is a also a first-time starter from low percentage debut trainer, David Donk (7%). She sports slow workouts with a spotty pattern, so a minor award is all that can be expected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#8 Miss Mastery flashed speed in 2 of her 3 sprints, so expect more of the same on the stretch out. Last out she got a clear early lead and still faded, so expect that to happen again with the added distance and extra pace pressure.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The beneficiaries of the hot early pace are #2 Another Page and #9 Brandini. In Another Page’s debut, she was slow into stride, before making a powerful late move into a slow early pace. With the additional quarter mile with which to operate and quick early pace, Another Page should get the proper set up to deliver a premium effort.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brandini is out of an unraced dam, was well bet in her debut for a trainer (James H. Bond) who is 1-for-27 at the meet and ran to her expectations when 2nd (defeating the 3rd place runner by 18 lengths). Brandini looks to sit a nice stalking trip outside the developing speed dual, and with a good workout since her first race, expect Brandini to hold her form today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recommended play:

$3 trifecta 2-9/2-9/1-4-5-6-8=$30

$1 trifecta 2-9/1-4-5-6-8/2-9=$10

$2 trifecta 2-9/2-9/1-4-8=$12

 

2013 P/L=+197.00

 

Past performances courtesy of Brisnet 

 

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Older Comments about Sunday Play of the Day-4/14/2013...

7 broke my dreams :(
I like the idea here, gonna throw the 4 into the equation as well
This is a pretty tough bunch of maiden fillies with a good bit of speed and talent. Seems to set up perfectly for the 2 and 9. Hennig's horse got off at 18-1 in her first start. I will be wagering AQU today, too.
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Meet Jasen Mangrum

My interest in the Sport of Kings goes back over 25 years with my father taking me with his friends to the old Ak-Sar-Ben Race Course in Omaha, NE.  From those early experiences I was able to read the Daily Racing Form before the age of 10.  Once The Woodlands opened in Kansas City in 1988, I became totally hooked on the sport studying racing charts after homework and tennis practice.  In recent years, with the explosion of handicapping tournaments, my love for handicapping the races has risen to a new level.  Primarily focused on New York, Chicago and Louisiana racing, I have now been forced to study races far and wide in attempt to find “cap horses” in the tournaments I play.  I have also dabbled in horse ownership within syndicates and on my own.

 

My fondest memories in racing include Silver Charm’s 1997 Kentucky Derby victory.  Both my father and I selected him, which made for a memorable day.  The best race I’ve seen was Tiznow’s first Breeders Cup Classic win in 2000 when he outdueled Giant’s Causeway down the length of the Churchill Downs stretch.   My biggest windfall as a gambler was a pool-scooping pick-4 win, paying over $6,600 at The Woodlands in 2005.

 

The point of this blog is to get everyone out there a few winners, but also to go in depth at how I come to the conclusions that I do.  From week to week, I’ll explain angles I think are important to locate winners.  I encourage others to post picks they like too, but please explain how you come to your conclusions.  That way everyone can learn a little more about this great game, and add another weapon to their handicapping arsenal.-Best of luck, Jasen Mangrum