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HRN Original Blog:
Handicapper's Corner

Kentucky Oaks Preview

The only Kentucky Oaks Futures Pool runs Friday, March 2nd through Sunday, March 4th. Here's some early thoughts from the HRN staff in order to help you with your future wagers this weekend.

 

 

Blog

 1st (5 points)

 2nd (3 points)

 3rd (1 point)

Florida Filly

 Stephanie's Kitten

 Sister Moon

 Charm the Maker

SoCal Scoop

 Princess Arabella

 Eden's Moon

 My Miss Aurelia

Zipse at the Track

 Princess Arabella

 Grace Hall

 On Fire Baby

Kentucky Runner

 Broadway's Alibi

 Grace Hall

 Sweet Seventeen

NY State of Racing 

 Grace Hall

 Summer Applause

 Princess Arabella

Handicapper's Corner

 Princess Arabella

 And Why Not

 Eden's Moon

Consensus

 Princess Arabella-16

 Grace Hall-11

 S.Kit/B.Alibi-tie 5

 

 

Here's a complete list of horses with odds:

1. Amie's Dini 30-1

2. And Why Not 50-1

3. Avie's Sense 20-1

4. Believe You Can 30-1

5. Captivating Lass 15-1

6. Charm the Maker 20-1

7. Disposablepleasure 20-1

8. Dixie Strike 20-1

9. Eden's Moon 15-1

10. Grace Hall 10-1

11. In Lingerie 30-1

12. Inny Minnie 30-1

13. Karlovy Vary 30-1

14. Killer Graces 20-1

15. Mamma Kimbo 20-1

16. Off Limits 30-1

17. On Fire Baby 15-1

18. Princess Arabella 15-1

19. Reneesgotzip 15-1

20. Summer Applause 12-1

21. Sweet Seventeen 30-1

22. Yara 20-1

23. Zo Impressive 30-1

24. "All Others 3YO Fillies" 3-1 

 

As if trainer Bob Baffert didn't have enough contenders for the Kentucky Derby, he has the consensus leader, Princess Arabella, for the Oaks as well. Though only ranked #22 among the HRN top Kentucky Oaks contenders, Princess Arabella has been most impressive in winning both lifetime starts. She faces her toughest task to date when she tries routing and stakes company for the first time in this Saturday's Grade 1 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita Park. 

 

Though Grace Hall didn't win last Saturday's Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park, it was a nice building block to help her peak on the first Friday in May.

 

Florida Filly's top pick, Stephanie's Kitten, has never won on dirt, but has shown the ability to easily handle route distances while capturing Keeneland's Alcibiades Stakes and the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. If this angle sounds familiar, it should considering Animal Kingdom had a similar profile in winning last year's Derby. He was also part of the mutual field in pools 1 & 2 of last year's Derby future wager.

 

Also part of the mutual field, Broadway's Alibi, tops Brian Appleton's list after her victory in Gulfstream Park's Forward Gal Stakes. Yet to try a route of ground, Broadway's Alibi suggests it shouldn't be a problem being sired by Vindication, and out of the Seeking the Gold mare, Broadway Gold.

 

Sister Moon is yet another field horse with upside. Trained by John Sadler, she is out of Dixie Union, sire of Derby "now" horse Union Rags, and hails from the same owners that brought us Zenyatta and Giacomo.

 

And Why Not, bunks with Union Rags on Michael Matz's shed row, has been working steadily and appears on target to make her 2012 debut soon.

 

Though racing is filled with stories that tug a one's heartstrings, a victory by Charm the Maker would thrust 79-year-old, hall of fame trainer, Ron McAnally back into national spotlight once again, where he belongs. In fact, he and wife Deborah, bred and own the Empire Maker filly as well.

 

2011 2-year-old filly champion, My Miss Aurelia, barely makes a dent in the pollsters' opinions due the fact that she has not had a published workout in 2012, and doesn't even make the top 23 wagering interests. Just making it to the Kentucky Oaks would be a stretch at this point.

 

Other contenders include On Fire Baby (multiple graded stakes winner at Churchill Downs and 3rd against males in Oaklawn Park's Smarty Jones Stakes, Summer Applause (Rachel Alexandra Stakes winner at Fair Grounds), Sweet Seventeen (Busher Stakes winner at Aqueduct) and flashy maiden winner for Bob Baffert, Eden's Moon.

 

Regardless of who you fancy, make sure to shop for value. If the price isn't right, just wait until the day of the race. If your horse is lucky enough to make it to the starting gate, the price should be juicy enough.

 

Please be sure to follow me on Twitter-@Cappercorner and/or friend me on facebook.com to continue the horse racing conversation!  

 

 

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Older Comments about Kentucky Oaks Preview...

And I went way out in left field...Sadly I had forgotten about Broadway's Alibi. Shame on me!
We'll according to the table it looks like we Princess Arabella is an automatic throw out. =P
summer applause....WP bet u will get paid.
I guess I am not the only Princess Arabella fan.
Thx for this, all this feverish talk about the boys, was wondering about the girls.
Jasen, thanks for getting our minds off the Derby for a while!
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Meet Jasen Mangrum

My interest in the Sport of Kings goes back over 25 years with my father taking me with his friends to the old Ak-Sar-Ben Race Course in Omaha, NE.  From those early experiences I was able to read the Daily Racing Form before the age of 10.  Once The Woodlands opened in Kansas City in 1988, I became totally hooked on the sport studying racing charts after homework and tennis practice.  In recent years, with the explosion of handicapping tournaments, my love for handicapping the races has risen to a new level.  Primarily focused on New York, Chicago and Louisiana racing, I have now been forced to study races far and wide in attempt to find “cap horses” in the tournaments I play.  I have also dabbled in horse ownership within syndicates and on my own.

 

My fondest memories in racing include Silver Charm’s 1997 Kentucky Derby victory.  Both my father and I selected him, which made for a memorable day.  The best race I’ve seen was Tiznow’s first Breeders Cup Classic win in 2000 when he outdueled Giant’s Causeway down the length of the Churchill Downs stretch.   My biggest windfall as a gambler was a pool-scooping pick-4 win, paying over $6,600 at The Woodlands in 2005.

 

The point of this blog is to get everyone out there a few winners, but also to go in depth at how I come to the conclusions that I do.  From week to week, I’ll explain angles I think are important to locate winners.  I encourage others to post picks they like too, but please explain how you come to your conclusions.  That way everyone can learn a little more about this great game, and add another weapon to their handicapping arsenal.-Best of luck, Jasen Mangrum