Ticker
  • Belvoir Bay (7-1) takes them all the way in the Torrey Pines.Posted 2 days ago
  • Strike Charmer (27-1) runs by Lady Eli late in the Ballston Spa.Posted 3 days ago
  • Masochistic (1-5) sprints to an easy victory in the Pat O'Brien at Del Mar.Posted 3 days ago
  • Arrogate (11-1) wins the Travers for fun in stakes record time!Posted 3 days ago
  • Flintshire (1-5) rolls up the rail to win the Grade 1 Sword Dancer.Posted 3 days ago
  • A.P. Indian (1-1) easily wins the Grade 1 Forego in stakes record time of 1:20.99.Posted 3 days ago
  • Drefong (3-1) dominates the Grade 1 King's Bishop every step of the way.Posted 3 days ago
  • Haveyougoneaway (10-1) gets there with a strong late in the Grade 1 Ballerina.Posted 3 days ago
  • Cavorting (2-1) rolls late to get up in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign.Posted 3 days ago
  • Hit It Once More makes every pole a winning one in the Albany Stakes.Posted 4 days ago
HRN Original Blog:
Handicapper's Corner

 

Older Comments...

Anyone who analyzes racing closely enough knows that the profession does not really care about the horses or else it would not have them running on dangerously proven wet tracks which seemed to really correlate with the fatalites like during Preakness Day. It all falls on the horses intelligence to survive. Someone might want to give Nyquist the credit for not being stupid enough to want to hydroplane at extreme speeds. Exaggerator is on the low end of this intelligence factor. So is American Freedom and so was American Pharoah but not as bad.
The people who don't like the chance of Nyquist's future success need to stay on Exaggerator's page (he's got plenty of sobbing excuses that need to he made into a bunch of ra ra about this past weekends performance) and get off and stay off the Nyquist page and let time for the rest of the year tell the true direction of these horses. I'm not exactly on Exaggerator's page, blasting every positive possibility that is brought up every though he probably deserves it after this weekend. And, I could sound twice as nasty as some people do about Nyquist. I don't dislike him either, but from an equine veterinary point of view, he does not look healthy most of the time or looks drugged out and shows fewer signs intelligence which is probably why is easier for a jockey to get to hrydroplane at faster speeds through the mud dangerously.
The problem is that everyone is looking for a horse that is consistent. There are no three year olds that are consistent this year and most are ridiculously far from it. Nyquist comes the closest because he had the longest undefeated streak in major races (not maiden and allowances like with Arrogate) before betraying everyone by not winning the Triple Crown or at least coming a little bit closer. The main people who are sick of hearing about Nyquist's potential success are the same people who get on Exaggerator's HRN page and show all the loyal fanship whether deserved or not - and the most recent laugh of an excuse is whether he should try turf to fix his dry weather problem. And is far as Arrogate, he had run all maiden and allowance races before. We have no proof that he is going to be that consistent or that that just wasn't his one great race. Who falls in love with a horse or says "a star is born" after just one impressive Grade 1 race? Secretariat did not get that much attention after his first win.
  • David Abel via Disqus · I'm by no means saying that Arrogate is a bad horse, but I definately need to see more before I can properly evaluate his abilities · 1 hour ago
I don't think Nyquist is a bad horse or overhyped... I believe he's just on the wrong end of his connections' ideas of what he can / can not do. First off, to whatever person claimed he was a sprinter, you couldn't be more wrong. You don't 'accidentally' win at 1-1/16 (twice), 1-1/18, 1-1/4 and finish a trying 3rd while tiring at a 1-3/16. But back to my point, why the Reddam's or Doug O'Neill feel the need to press the horse on the lead is super confusing to me. He can obviously rate and doesn't need the lead, yet in his last two races they sent him out and ultimately burnt him out. Add to that his last two races have been absolute mud pits. He may not completely dislike the surface, but it obviously doesn't help him. I'm excited to see his PA Derby performance and could tell us a lot about his future plans
I hope the odds are decent.
No one ever said Nyquist was the next Secretariat or American Pharoah, at least not outside of a very temporary comparison. Fair to say that he is not a great horse as a three year old; no one that is not a triple winner; at best, they prove themselves at an older age like California Chrome IF they have that chance. Nyquist is a very good horse with a few weeknesses dealing with the running environment. Exaggerator very obviously has them too, but just the other way around.
She made up a lot of ground and has closed well in all of her races so far. Excited to see how she does with more distance.
There is no other speed in this field. Bradester will set a moderate or slow early pace. Frosted/Bradester exacta!!!
I don't see it happening, but if Bradester gets an uncontested lead, he can absolutely win this race. But before you all say anything, YES I KNOW HE'LL HAVE TO FEND OFF THE 2ND BEST HORSE AROUND, but all races set up different and Bradester's last two races have been nothing short of great
Possibly a few more shooters coming into this race.
Liked him since I first heard if him in Breeders Cup 2014. After finally winning one of America's top 10 finest turf races, he will win the Woodbine Mile by a convincing margin.
That was a good close race. Metaboss is due to pull off a G1 win soon
Frosted-Comfort-Bradester-Mubtaahij. I will be rooting for Comfort, as he broke terribly last time and gave away too much ground early, but I'm still not sure he can beat Frosted.
A Liam's Map with better stamina
I'm pulling for Frosted but do not want to see him get injured or burned out trying to 1 up his past performances
Video I got of Arrogate walking over to get saddled (the rest of them are in a different video). Kind of a funny story, you can hear the guy yelling and clapping in the background, while Arrogate is acting a wee green, right? Shortly after everyone was shushing him and scolding him. Husband and I thought it was kind of ironic that he went on to smash the track record after. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iB7gSCALjo
She did not lose anything in defeat today. Time to take her off the undefeated watch.
  • Mike via Disqus · She ran well considering she hadn't run in 14months. · 6 hours ago
Nyquist is overrated, and a sprinter, managed to appear as if he was more than an average colt who just barely won the Derby. Propaganda can only work so long as the results support the objective. His connections had a nice horse, but didn't know when to manage expectations. Great horses don't finish 3rd and 4th after being hailed as the second coming of Secretariat. I prefer to follow real talent, not flashes in the pan. Compare this colt with Arrogate. Nyquist is not in his league.
Obviously, I would like Frosted to win (at least by five) to set up a showdown with Chrome in the Classic. I need to see another impressive performance by Arrogate before I put him up there as a contender with those two.
One of the best jockeys of all time. Deserves a rating of at least 9.75
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Meet Jasen Mangrum

My interest in the Sport of Kings goes back over 25 years with my father taking me with his friends to the old Ak-Sar-Ben Race Course in Omaha, NE.  From those early experiences I was able to read the Daily Racing Form before the age of 10.  Once The Woodlands opened in Kansas City in 1988, I became totally hooked on the sport studying racing charts after homework and tennis practice.  In recent years, with the explosion of handicapping tournaments, my love for handicapping the races has risen to a new level.  Primarily focused on New York, Chicago and Louisiana racing, I have now been forced to study races far and wide in attempt to find “cap horses” in the tournaments I play.  I have also dabbled in horse ownership within syndicates and on my own.

 

My fondest memories in racing include Silver Charm’s 1997 Kentucky Derby victory.  Both my father and I selected him, which made for a memorable day.  The best race I’ve seen was Tiznow’s first Breeders Cup Classic win in 2000 when he outdueled Giant’s Causeway down the length of the Churchill Downs stretch.   My biggest windfall as a gambler was a pool-scooping pick-4 win, paying over $6,600 at The Woodlands in 2005.

 

The point of this blog is to get everyone out there a few winners, but also to go in depth at how I come to the conclusions that I do.  From week to week, I’ll explain angles I think are important to locate winners.  I encourage others to post picks they like too, but please explain how you come to your conclusions.  That way everyone can learn a little more about this great game, and add another weapon to their handicapping arsenal.-Best of luck, Jasen Mangrum

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