Ticker
  • Tonito M. is much the best in the Oklahoma Derby! Posted 2 days ago
  • The well-bred Imperia rolls late to score in the Pilgrim! Posted 2 days ago
  • Lady Eli kicks it in to run away with the Miss Grillo! Posted 2 days ago
  • American Pharoah strides out in the FrontRunner! Posted 3 days ago
  • Beholder a bit short, but still best in the Zenyatta! Posted 3 days ago
  • Tonalist impressively wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup! Posted 3 days ago
  • Main Sequence wins a thriller over Twilight Eclipse in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic! Posted 3 days ago
  • Private Zone battles his way to a 2nd straight Vosburgh! Posted 3 days ago
  • Stephanie's Kitten powers on by in the Flower Bowl! Posted 3 days ago
  • Belle Gallantey demolishes the field in the Beldame! Posted 3 days ago
HRN Original Blog:
Handicapper's Corner

Hollywood Turf Festivus for All of Us!!!

Never Retreat with Julien Leparoux wins the Grade II Canadian Stakes
Complete analysis (with suggested wagers) of all the Hollywood Turf Festival stakes starting Friday and running through Sunday.

Friday
Race 5-Miesque Stakes Gd. 2-1 Mile Turf 2 Year Old Fillies

Of the 7 entrants only 3 have raced on turf and 5 at a route with 2 of those victorious. #6 Assateague and #7 More Than Love falls in both of those categories and lies over this field. With a lack of early speed signed on, both runners have tactical speed that should help them get beneficial trips. More Than Love will be the top pick even though Assateague defeated her in the debut effort. Even with her tactical speed, More Than Love owns the best late pace figures of the route runners. #5 Katie’s Ten stretches out coming off a 4th place finish in a sprint stakes at Golden Gate. Sired by the versatile Rock Hard Ten, Katie’s Ten dam, Hawayil has had 3 offspring reach the winner’s circle with 2 of those winning on the grass. A move grass route racing can only help Katie’s Ten chances. Bred for turf, European invader Island Paradise is another one to watch though she has not run on turf yet with both efforts being on Polytrack, sprinting at Kempton Park.

Bet-$4 trifecta 6-7/6-7/1-2-4-5=$32 and $2 trifecta 6-7/1-2-4-5/6-7=$16 $2 trifecta 7/6/1-2-4-5=$8  
Total bet=$56

Race 9-Matriarch Stakes Gd. 1-1 Mile Turf Fillies 3 & Up



Trainer Graham Motion sends the 3-headed-monster of #1 Unbridled Humor, #2 Summer Soiree and #5 Gypsy’s Warning from the East Coast in attempt to capture California’s top prize for turf females. All appear to have a good chance to land the top prize, but don’t tell that to trainer Chris Block would sends out the always underestimated Grade 1 winner, #8 Never Retreat. It appears that Summer Soiree will face some pace pressure from #3 Quiet Oasis, while Unbridled Humor and Never Retreat will sit stalking trips just off the front runners. I will look for Never Retreat to first jump on deep closers Gypsy’s Warning, #7 Star Billing and #6 All Star Heart while having comparable late pace figures to those. Defending champion, Gypsy’s Warning will relish a return to firm turf and run on late to get a piece. Star Billing returns home from a dull effort in Keeneland’s Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup. A cut back in distance should help Star Billing’s late kick, and she has been working forwardly for this race with her last 3 workouts getting progressively faster at 5 furlongs.

Saturday
Race 9-Citation Handicap. Gd. 2-1 1/16 Miles 3 & Up

The pace for this race looks like it will be extremely fast with #7 Bob Black Jack and #8 Assessment cutting out the early fractions. Though favorite #2 Jeranimo is has found himself near the lead in his last 2 starts, he is a versatile runner and with a switch to patient rider, Garrett Gomez, expect Jeranimo to lay off the pace today. With an insured quick pace, I will look to graded-stakes-newcomer, #5 War Element, to gobble up the field late for the victory. War Element broke slowly in his last race, and closed furiously into a slow pace to finish 4th in Santa Anita’s Lure Stakes. He is reunited with jockey Joel Rosario and ripped off a 4 furlong workout in 46 3/5 seconds on 11/18 in preparation for this. #9 John Johny Jak is a very consistent sort that is must include in all exotics. #1 Calimonco is consistent as well, but tends to “hang” a bit, though he owns a win over John Johny Jak earlier this summer at Del Mar.

Bet $10 Win & Place #5=$20 $1 trifecta 5/1-2-7/ALL=$21 $1 trifecta 1-2-7/5/ALL=$21 
Total Bet=$62

Sunday
Race 5-Generous Stakes Gd. 3-1 Mile Turf 2 Year Olds

#2 Blue White Fire invades from Europe and appears to be dropping in class after running in a Grade 2 stakes at The Curragh. Trainer Delmot Weld has a history of success with European invaders and Blue White Fire appears as if he will like a trip to the Golden State, since he prefers good to firm turf. #3 Motown Men, #4 Senor Rain, #5 Got Even are bona fide front runners that will insure a fast pace that should prove beneficial to closers like recent maiden graduate, #7 Battle Force and #9 Devil in Disguise. #1 Handsome Mike and #6 Major Magic are recent  turf sprint winners stretching out, the latter is moving into turf master, Neil Drysdale’s barn and sports evenly spaced works (7 days apart) while building in length signaling a top effort.

Bet $2 trifecta 2/6-7-9/ALL=$42 $1 trifecta 6-7-9/2/ALL=$21
Total Bet=$63

Race 9-Hollywood Derby Gd. 1-1 1/4 Miles Turf 3 Year Olds

In a very contentious renewal of the Hollywood Derby, I will lean toward #6 Venomous as my top pick. He encountered a ton of traffic trouble when a late closing 2nd in the Oak Tree Derby. With any less trouble and an extra furlong to run, Venomous has a great chance to be in the winner’s circle. Multiple graded stakes winner, #12 Willcox Inn ships in from Chicago for trainer Michael Stidham.  Stidham is very good with shippers hitting at an 18% rate.  Willcox Inn is very consistent while only finishing off the board once on grass in Arlington’s Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes and must be included in all exotic wagers. #4 Western Aristocrat comes off a front-running victory in the Grade 1 Jamaica Stakes at Belmont Park. He will not be alone on the front end as recent Oak Tree Derby winner, #11 Ultimate Eagle likes to run on the front end as well. #3 Slumber is coming of a victory in a listed stakes in England at 1 ¼ miles and should be regarded as a serious contender. In fact, Slumber is the only runner to win at today’s distance and he’s done it twice. 

Bet $20 Win & Place #6=$40
Total Bet=$40
 
Since 11/18 Total Bets=$60, Cashes=$114, Profit=$54

Please be sure to follow me on Twitter-@cappercorner and/or friend me on facebook.com to continue the horse racing conversation!

 

comments powered by Disqus

Older Comments about Hollywood Turf Festivus for All of Us!!!...

we appear to have benn infiltattated by PETA....Used to have these idiots down by the gate yelling at the assistant starters...Several screws loose
Great way to spend a weekend...watching horses die
Considering the way the top 2 were bet, $88 for the dollar tri was not bad at all.
Wow, War Element really got bet down pretty good considering that was hit graded stakes debut. Jeranimo is much better when rated off the pace IMO
Dodged a bullet when Assateague got scratched since I didn't have Starship Flare in my trifecta plays.
I'd love to see Never Retreat get the win here, and if she does, I think she will deserve an Eclipse Award.
Connect With Jasen
Google+
Find 

Me On Facebook
Follow Me On Twitter


Meet Jasen Mangrum

My interest in the Sport of Kings goes back over 25 years with my father taking me with his friends to the old Ak-Sar-Ben Race Course in Omaha, NE.  From those early experiences I was able to read the Daily Racing Form before the age of 10.  Once The Woodlands opened in Kansas City in 1988, I became totally hooked on the sport studying racing charts after homework and tennis practice.  In recent years, with the explosion of handicapping tournaments, my love for handicapping the races has risen to a new level.  Primarily focused on New York, Chicago and Louisiana racing, I have now been forced to study races far and wide in attempt to find “cap horses” in the tournaments I play.  I have also dabbled in horse ownership within syndicates and on my own.

 

My fondest memories in racing include Silver Charm’s 1997 Kentucky Derby victory.  Both my father and I selected him, which made for a memorable day.  The best race I’ve seen was Tiznow’s first Breeders Cup Classic win in 2000 when he outdueled Giant’s Causeway down the length of the Churchill Downs stretch.   My biggest windfall as a gambler was a pool-scooping pick-4 win, paying over $6,600 at The Woodlands in 2005.

 

The point of this blog is to get everyone out there a few winners, but also to go in depth at how I come to the conclusions that I do.  From week to week, I’ll explain angles I think are important to locate winners.  I encourage others to post picks they like too, but please explain how you come to your conclusions.  That way everyone can learn a little more about this great game, and add another weapon to their handicapping arsenal.-Best of luck, Jasen Mangrum