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Handicapper's Corner

Del Mar & Saratoga Week 1 Insights & Trends

Racing fans from coast to coast will flock to the summertime retreats of Del Mar and Saratoga to immerse themselves in top-notch racing for the next 6 weeks. After one week in the books, let’s look at some trends that could lead to winners later in the summer, and more importantly eliminate short-priced favorites, leading to whopping payoffs.


 

 

Del Mar Analysis


Main Track Sprints

Date Surface Distance PP 1st call LB 2nd Call LB
7/18/2012 Synth 5 8 2.5 3.5
7/19/2012 Synth 5 4 5 5.5
7/19/2012 Synth 5.5 2 0 0
7/19/2012 Synth 5.5 2 2.75 3
7/20/2012 Synth 5.5 2 0 0
7/21/2012 Synth 5.5 3 3.75 2.75
7/22/2012 Synth 5.5 7 0.75 1
7/22/2012 Synth 5.5 8 0.5 0
7/18/2012 Synth 6 8 0 0
7/19/2012 Synth 6 1 0 0
7/19/2012 Synth 6 7 2.75 1.5
7/20/2012 Synth 6 2 3.5 2.75
7/20/2012 Synth 6 8 0.5 0.25
7/20/2012 Synth 6 5 2.5 2
7/20/2012 Synth 6 2 0 0
7/21/2012 Synth 6 10 2.25 1
7/22/2012 Synth 6 5 3.25 1.75
7/22/2012 Synth 6 2 0.5 0.25
7/22/2012 Synth 6 5 0 0
7/18/2012 Synth 6.5 11 1 0
7/19/2012 Synth 6.5 2 0.25 0
7/21/2012 Synth 6.5 3 0 0
7/21/2012 Synth 7 5 1.75 6.5
Average


1.46 1.38


•    Only 2 main track sprints have been won outside post 9.


•    Being on or near the lead has been beneficial, winners are only 1.46 off the lead at first call & 1.38 at second call on average.


•    Only 3 races have been won by horses who were more than 3 lengths behind at the 2nd call. Two of the winners were in 5 furlong races & one at 7 furlongs. If those 3 races are eliminated and using only 6 & 6 ½ furlong races, the average beaten lengths at 1st & 2nd call decline to 1.18 and 0.68.


•    In 14 races at 6 & 6 ½ furlongs, 7 winners had the lead at the 2nd call.


•    5 out 14 (36%) of those races were won wire to wire.


Main Track Routes & Turf Sprints

Date Surface Distance PP 1st call LB 2nd Call LB
7/18/2012 Synth 8 5 6.5 3.5
7/21/2012 Synth 8 5 1 1
7/21/2012 Synth 8 5 4 1
7/18/2012 Synth 8.5 6 3 3.75
7/18/2012 Synth 8.5 3 0.25 0
7/22/2012 Synth 8.5 8 2.75 3.5
Average


2.92 2.13
Date Surface Distance PP 1st call LB 2nd Call LB
7/18/2012 Turf 5 5 6 5
7/19/2012 Turf 5 5 0 0
7/20/2012 Turf 5 7 6.5 4.5
Average


4.17 3.17

 


•    Not enough races have been run to glean any telling information, other than the fact that runners should not sit too far off the pace in main track routes.


•    Though only 3 turf sprints have been run, Del Mar is known for the tight turns of its turf course, which is why it is surprising all turf sprints have been won outside post 4.


Turf Routes

Date Surface Distance PP 1st call LB 2nd Call LB
7/18/2012 Turf 8 1 1.75 2
7/18/2012 Turf 8 3 2 2.25
7/18/2012 Turf 8 4 0 0
7/20/2012 Turf 8 2 6.25 4.25
7/20/2012 Turf 8 2 13.25 8.25
7/22/2012 Turf 8 4 4.5 3
7/22/2012 Turf 8 4 0 0
7/18/2012 Turf 8.5 4 1 1
7/20/2012 Turf 8.5 5 5.5 5
7/21/2012 Turf 8.5 7 0 0
7/21/2012 Turf 8.5 6 3 2.5
7/22/2012 Turf 8.5 3 5 3
7/21/2012 Turf 9 3 0 0
Average


3.25 2.40

 


•    All seven of 1-mile turf races have been by runners breaking from posts 1-4.


•    Only 3 races have been won by runners behind by more than 5 lengths at first call, all 3 of these races were run on 7/20/2012, so take a look at front runners coming out of those 7/20 grass races. When those three races are eliminated from statistical analysis, beaten lengths averages fall to 1.73 & 1.38 for the 1st and 2nd call respectively.


•    Regardless of distance, no turf route has been won by a horse breaking outside of post 7.


Saratoga Analysis


Main Track Sprints

Date Surface Distance PP 1st call LB 2nd Call LB
7/20/2012 D 5.5 2 0 0
7/20/2012 D 5.5 1 0 0
7/21/2012 D 5.5 4 0.5 0.25
7/23/2012 D 5.5 3 8.5 7.75
7/20/2012 D 6 6 3.75 2.5
7/21/2012 D 6 5 0.25 0
7/21/2012 D 6 12 2 0.5
7/22/2012 D 6 6 2.25 0
7/22/2012 D 6 9 2.25 1.5
7/22/2012 D 6 3 3.25 3
7/23/2012 D 6 3 1.5 0
7/22/2012 D 6.5 1 0 0
7/20/2012 D 7 6 2.5 2
7/20/2012 D 7 5 0 0
7/21/2012 D 7 2 2.5 2.25
Average


1.95 1.32

 


•    Early, inside speed has done well the first week. Only 2 horses have won outside post 6, and only 1 horse has rallied from more than 3 lengths back at 2nd call.


•    4 of 15 (27%) winners have won wire to wire & 7 of 15 (47%) have had the lead at the 2nd call.


Main Track Routes

Date Surface Distance PP 1st call LB 2nd Call LB
7/21/2012 D 9 1 0 0
7/23/2012 D 9 6 0 0
7/23/2012 D 9 7 1.5 3
7/23/2012 D 9 5 1 0.25
Average


0.63 0.81

 


•    Though there are not enough races (4) to come to concrete truths, it appears that early speed has done really well as runners are less than a length off the lead at both calls.


Turf Sprints

Date Surface Distance PP 1st call LB 2nd Call LB
7/20/2012 OT 5.5 9 2.25 0.25
7/21/2012 OT 5.5 5 3.5 3.5
7/21/2012 OT 5.5 3 2.5 2.5
7/22/2012 OT 5.5 7 1 0.5
7/23/2012 OT 5.5 1 0 0
7/23/2012 OT 5.5 5 1.5 2
Average


1.79 1.46

 


•    Only occur on the outer turf courses, and like dirt routes have a small sample size from which to look at. Though only 1 of 6 races have been won wire to wire, 3.5 lengths at the 2nd call has been farthest back any winner has rallied from.


Inner/Outer Turf Routes

Date Surface Distance PP 1st call LB 2nd Call LB
7/20/2012 IT 8 5 4.5 3.5
7/20/2012 IT 8 2 2.5 1.5
7/22/2012 IT 8 5 5.75 4
7/22/2012 IT 8 2 9.5 4.5
7/23/2012 IT 8 7 2.75 1.75
7/21/2012 IT 8.5 11 9 5.75
7/21/2012 IT 8.5 4 0 0
7/21/2012 IT 8.5 6 2 1.75
7/22/2012 IT 8.5 7 1 1
7/23/2012 IT 8.5 1 4.5 2.5
Average


4.15 2.63
7/20/2012 OT 8.5 1 0 0
7/20/2012 OT 8.5 8 5 4.5
7/21/2012 OT 8.5 5 0 0
7/22/2012 OT 8.5 4 5 3
7/22/2012 OT 8.5 11 5.75 5.25
7/23/2012 OT 8.5 4 8.5 6
Average


4.04 3.13


•    Both courses have been playing fair during the meet’s first week. Horses have won on the front end, off the pace and from a variety of posts.

 

Please be sure to follow me on Twitter-@Cappercorner and/or friend me on facebook.com to continue the horse racing conversation!  

 

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Older Comments about Del Mar & Saratoga Week 1 Insights & Trends...

Place is running early and now another has discovered it..GOOD FOR YOU
Will you be posting Haskell Day selections?
Great handicapping info here ... thanks, Jasen!
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Meet Jasen Mangrum

My interest in the Sport of Kings goes back over 25 years with my father taking me with his friends to the old Ak-Sar-Ben Race Course in Omaha, NE.  From those early experiences I was able to read the Daily Racing Form before the age of 10.  Once The Woodlands opened in Kansas City in 1988, I became totally hooked on the sport studying racing charts after homework and tennis practice.  In recent years, with the explosion of handicapping tournaments, my love for handicapping the races has risen to a new level.  Primarily focused on New York, Chicago and Louisiana racing, I have now been forced to study races far and wide in attempt to find “cap horses” in the tournaments I play.  I have also dabbled in horse ownership within syndicates and on my own.

 

My fondest memories in racing include Silver Charm’s 1997 Kentucky Derby victory.  Both my father and I selected him, which made for a memorable day.  The best race I’ve seen was Tiznow’s first Breeders Cup Classic win in 2000 when he outdueled Giant’s Causeway down the length of the Churchill Downs stretch.   My biggest windfall as a gambler was a pool-scooping pick-4 win, paying over $6,600 at The Woodlands in 2005.

 

The point of this blog is to get everyone out there a few winners, but also to go in depth at how I come to the conclusions that I do.  From week to week, I’ll explain angles I think are important to locate winners.  I encourage others to post picks they like too, but please explain how you come to your conclusions.  That way everyone can learn a little more about this great game, and add another weapon to their handicapping arsenal.-Best of luck, Jasen Mangrum