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HRN Original Blog:
Handicapper's Corner

Breeders' Cup Friday Full Card Analysis

Questing and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. winning the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama at Saratoga Race Course.
Photo: NYRA, Adam Coglianese

Race 1-$70,000 NW1X Allowance-1 1/8 Miles Turf


#8 Dreamcatcher appeared to run out of real estate when facing a similar group last out going a mile. Look for him to be a factor again while getting an extra furlong. #1 Press Baron defeated the top choice last out with a better trip. He’s an obvious contender, but look for Dreamcatcher to turn the tables. #6 Saint Loup runs first time in the U. S. for trainer Julio Canani. Saint Loup already boasts a Grade 3 victory in France, so expect him to factor with these. Also, Canani is 33% first time with shippers and 23% with horses away for at least 90 days.


Race 2-$70,000 NW1X Allowance-6 ½ furlongs


Dallas Keen shows tremendous confidence by moving #10 Miss Oops up into allowance company off a smashing win in a $20,000 claimer last out. She shows a liking to the distance (4-2-2-0) and should sit a nice stalking trip with her outside draws. #9 Magical Band owns the quickest early pace figures in the field, but comes home very slow at 6 furlongs, so getting that extra 110 yards appears to be a challenge. #7 Big Tiz must be included in horizontal  exotics, but with a lifetime record of 11-1-4-4  and ML odds of 2-1, Big Tiz a play against in pick-3’s and 4’s.


Race 3-$70,000 Allowance-7 Furlongs


#6 Northern Iowa appeared to flatten out in the late stages of his last few route races, so a return to 7 furlongs should help the 3-year-old son of Istan. #1 Got Even is a speed ball who defeated BC Mile hopeful, John Scott when running 2nd in the Cal Cup Classic last out. A cutback in distance will definitely help him out, and he appears to like Santa Anita with a record of 4-2-2-0. #8 Sir Allison hails from the Bob Baffert barn and on 10/27 reported to have outworked stable mate and likely BC Juvenile Fillies favorite, Executiveprivilege. Though he probably will not be near his 6-1 morning line odds, Sir Allison should still be considered descent value at anything over 5-2.


Race 4-$500,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint-6 furlongs


#5 Super Ninety Nine won his debut going 7 furlongs over this surface 4 weeks ago, and owns a series of strong workouts for this effort. Look for the son of Pulpit to lay just off the pace and get first jump on the stretch runners. #3 Merit Man is undefeated in 2 starts and a won the local prep for this when winning the Tim Conway Stakes on 10/6. He has 2 workouts spaced 7 days apart to get ready for this race, and look for him to sit a similar trip as the top choice. #4 South Floyd is the main speed and should be included in all vertical wagers.


Race 5-$500,000 Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Marathon- 1 ¾ Miles


In a wide open event,
#1 Atigun looks to be one of the survivors after the 1 ¾ miles journey. His respectable 3rd in last June’s Belmont Stakes shows he can handle marathon distances. #5 Jaycito last race, against 2 grade-1 winners, seems a perfect tune up for today.   #3 Balladry runs well 2nd off the layoff and seems likely to handle the marathon distance, a nice longshot to include in exotic wagers.


Race 6-$1,000,000 Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-1 Mile Turf


#5 Spring Venture has done nothing wrong in 3 career attempts. She’s 2 for 2 on the lawn, and last time out past the 2-turn test when winning over Woodbine’s Polytrack. #6 Watsdachances is a perfect 2 for 2 since coming to the U.S. for trainer Chad Brown. One troubling factor is that she has yet to run her last 5/16th in under 30 seconds, which could hurt the closer on racing’s biggest stage. #4 Flotilla was a troubled 4th in a stake on “Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe prep day.” She was bottled up with nowhere to go, on a soggy course behind a very slow place (winner went wire to wire).


Race 7-$2,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies-1 1/16 Miles


In a race with a plethora of speed, #8 Kauai Katie is drawn perfectly outside to stalk the frontrunners. Though Kauai Katie is bred to go a route of ground, she has never raced beyond six furlongs. In case Kauai Katie gets hooked in the hot speed dual, #3 Spring in the Air is a contender that will be running late. She has never won on dirt, but captured Keeneland’s Alcibiades Stakes (G1) from off the pace over Polytrack. #1 Beholder earned a 108 Beyer Speed Figure when demolishing a group of allowance sprinters here on 10/4. Her inside post will help, but looks to have distance limitations according to her breeding.


Race 8-$2,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly/Mare Turf-1 ¼ Miles Turf

 


#9 Marketing Mix has done little wrong this year running her record to 6-4-1-0. She took the local prep for this when winning the Rodeo Drive (G1). Marketing Mix is 3-2-1-0 at today’s distance and has fired two bullet workouts leading up to the race. She is a major factor that must be used in all multi-race exotics. #4 The Fugue is another consistent sort that has been banging heads against Europe’s best turf distaffers all season. She is undefeated at 1 ¼ miles and reports are that she likes firmer going. #10 Ridasiyna is 4-for-5, and just defeated one of Europe’s best (Izzi Top) in the Prix de l’Opera at today’s distance.


Race 9-$2,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic-1 1/8 Miles


#4 Questing is freakishly quick and is a good candidate to wire this field. #6 Royal Delta is the defending champion and the division leader throughout the year. She loves this distance and is definitely a major player. #7 Include Me Out has the home court advantage and owns a 2-1-1-0 record at the distance. She has worked steadily for this spot and is a longshot to use in all exotics.

 


Race 10-$150,000 Grade 2 Twilight Derby-1 1/8 Miles Turf


#4 Smart Ellis returns from a 2-month break and shows two wins coming off layoffs in his PPs. There should be enough speed in here to set up his late kick, and sports a positive work tab as his workouts from the last month gradually increased in distance, a winning angle from trainer Richard Mandella. #2 Speaking of Which invades from Europe where he Is already a graded-stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. The addition of Lasix can only help the 3-year-old son of Invincible Spirit. #3 Power Foot is a longshot who owns speed figures to make him competitive, but expect him to improve with a barn switch to Mandella.

 

I will be hosting a live chat all throughout the action on Friday and Saturday on the Handicapper's Corner blog page, so be sure to visit this weekend to interact with me and the rest of the Horse Racing Nation!

 

Please be sure to follow me on Twitter-@Cappercorner and/or friend me on facebook.com to continue the horse racing conversation! 

Photo courtesy of Benoit Photography 

 

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Older Comments about Breeders' Cup Friday Full Card Analysis...

I apologize for not chatting with everyone today, but due to technical difficulties at Santa Anita, communication has been limited.
First pick 3 of the day-Race 3 1-6-8/3/ALL=$19.50 on a $0.50 bet & 1-6/3/1-3-5-6-7-9-10-11-14=$9.00
T-mines 38 minutes until 1st post!
Will you be posting your pick 4 or pick 5 tickets?
A great opening run of Championship Races and I invite everyone to check out my preview of both Friday and Saturday at www.sportsnola.com. I am the horse racing writer for that great site.
Time for us to make some money. Let's get Kauai Katie home!
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Meet Jasen Mangrum

My interest in the Sport of Kings goes back over 25 years with my father taking me with his friends to the old Ak-Sar-Ben Race Course in Omaha, NE.  From those early experiences I was able to read the Daily Racing Form before the age of 10.  Once The Woodlands opened in Kansas City in 1988, I became totally hooked on the sport studying racing charts after homework and tennis practice.  In recent years, with the explosion of handicapping tournaments, my love for handicapping the races has risen to a new level.  Primarily focused on New York, Chicago and Louisiana racing, I have now been forced to study races far and wide in attempt to find “cap horses” in the tournaments I play.  I have also dabbled in horse ownership within syndicates and on my own.

 

My fondest memories in racing include Silver Charm’s 1997 Kentucky Derby victory.  Both my father and I selected him, which made for a memorable day.  The best race I’ve seen was Tiznow’s first Breeders Cup Classic win in 2000 when he outdueled Giant’s Causeway down the length of the Churchill Downs stretch.   My biggest windfall as a gambler was a pool-scooping pick-4 win, paying over $6,600 at The Woodlands in 2005.

 

The point of this blog is to get everyone out there a few winners, but also to go in depth at how I come to the conclusions that I do.  From week to week, I’ll explain angles I think are important to locate winners.  I encourage others to post picks they like too, but please explain how you come to your conclusions.  That way everyone can learn a little more about this great game, and add another weapon to their handicapping arsenal.-Best of luck, Jasen Mangrum