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HRN Original Blog:
Handicapper's Corner

Arlington Million Full Card Analysis

 

Race 1-Straight Line Stakes $65,000, 1 Mile, 3 Year Olds

 

#6 Cameo Appearance (2/1) has been a force to be reckoned with after returning from a 10-month break with 2 devastating front-running victories. It appears that #3 Mongolian Saturday will keep him company early, setting things up for the late runners. #7 Ground Transport (5/1) cuts back to a 1-turn mile while dropping from graded stakes company. He’s been working well over track, and should get a good tracking trip for a trainer (Stidham) that is 20% with horses laid off at least 90 days. #4 Positively (10/1) has 4 2nd place finishes in 8 starts and has run well in Polytrack/turf efforts.

 

Selections 7-4-6

 

Race 2-O/C $80,000N2X, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 3 & Up

 

In a very difficult race, #3 Strike Impact (10/1) looks to  get the early lead with the country’s hottest jockey, Joel Rosario. #5 Nikki’s Sandcastle (9/2) needed his last while caught wide in a slow-paced race. Look for an improved effort 2nd time off the layoff.  #2 Coalport (5/2) is 3-for-4 over the course with his only loss coming last out in graded company. The cutback in distance and inside draw should help him lay close to the pace.

 

Selections 3-5-2

 

Race 3-$7,500 Claiming, 7 Furlongs, 3 & Up

 

#8 Fastestwhogetspaid (3/1) takes a big drop in class from $10,000 open claimers to the conditioned $5,000 level. His speed figures dominate this field and there should be enough early speed to help set up his late kick. #6 Beware the Tiger (10/1) runs his best when closing late, but was put on the lead last out and faded badly. Look for an improved effort from off the pace. #10 On the Run (5/1) won at the same level last out, so a repeat off-the-pace effort would not be out of the question considering the amount of early speed signed on.

 

Selections 8-6-10

 

Race 4-$25,000 Md. Clm., 5 Furlongs  Turf, 3 & Up F/M

 

#9 Happy Everafter (5/1) drops in half off a March layoff for a trainer (Forster) who has a good history with vacationing runners. Though untested on grass, her dam has thrown 2 turf winners from 4 runners. #2 Wedding Trifecta (8/1) adds blinkers and cuts back to a turf sprint. There should be ample early speed to set up her late run. #10 Ravishingly (5/2) is a first-time starter for a high-percentage barn, but the connections paid $145,000 for her at auction and has already decided to risk her for $25,000. Not a positive sign.

 

Selections 9-2-10

 

Race 5-$12,500 Md. Clm., 6 ½ Furlongs, 3 & Up

I tried to pick against #1 Corporate Intrigue (7/5), but the other contenders have had too many chances, and the newcomers don’t look too promising. This is obviously a last-ditch effort to get in the winner’s circle while adding blinkers for the same connections as the #10 in the previous race. Many of these horses appear to have trouble getting the 6 ½ furlongs, but #6 Clever Yank (15/1) will definitely handle the distance and should pick up a piece late. #7 Last Gun in Texas (5/1) consistently lands minor awards and should not thrown out of any exotics.

 

Selections 1-6-7

 

Race 6-Hatoof Stakes $65,000, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 3 Year Old Fillies

If #1 Some Temper and #10 Liz Pendens hook up in a quick pace dual early, expect a cavalry charge at the finish. I look to #2 Sandsarita (8/1) to finish fastest of all. Last time out she was off a 9-month layoff, made 2 middle moves, and closed with a rush to break her maiden by daylight for hall of fame trainer, Bill Mott. Mott is 18% 2nd off the layoff and every runner he’s sent to Arlington has hit the board this year. #3 Bold Kitten (7/2) needed her last, will enjoy the switch back to turf and gets the barn’s top jockey back aboard. #5 My Option (3/1) leads the head-to-head battle with Bold Kitten 3-1, so she is an obvious contender that needs to be used in all exotics.

 

Selections 2-3-5

 

Race 7-American St. Leger $400,000, 1 11/16 Miles Turf, 3 & up

#8 Wigmore Hall (7/2) and #4 Dandino (9/5) are European shippers that appear to have this field over a barrel. I’ll lean to Wigmore Hall as he has performed over the course admirdably when splitting the field in the last few Arlington Millions. #6 Ioya Bigtime (8/1) appears to be America’s best chance. He likes the course, was second in this race last year and is possible lone speed of the group.

 

Selections 8-4-6

 

Race 8-Secretariat Stakes $500,000 Gd. I, 1 1/4 Miles Turf, 3 Year Olds   

Without much of early speed in here look for #3 Rydilluc (9/2) to take them wire to wire. Last out Rydilluc got hooked in a speed dual and was defeated by a handful of these. Look for him to turn the tables against them with a better pace scenario at better odds. #9 Jack Milton (3/1) is a very consistent horse that always shows up regardless of the pace setup. #2 Visiyani (12/1) is from the same connections that won this race last year. Everytime they bring a horse across the pond, much respect should be given.

 

Selections 3-9-2

 

Race 9-Beverly D. Stakes $750,000 Gd. I, 1 3/16 Miles Turf, F/M 3 & Up

#4 Dank (7/2) is the top pick invading for Sir Michael Stoute. The 4-year-old daughter of Dansili has never been past 1 1/8 miles, but from watching her previous races, the extra ground shouldn’t been a problem. #6 Marketing Mix (2/1) is a threat in every race she’s entered. Last out she capture the Sunset Handicap against males at Betfair Hollywood Park. #5 Gifted Girl (12/1) has been very competitive at lower levels in Europe. She should love the added distance, but faces the ultimate class test today.

 

Selections 4-6-5

 

Race 10-Arlington Million $1,000,000 Gd. I, 1 1/4 Miles, 3 Year Olds & Up

#10 The Apache (6/1) has been pointed for this race since running 3 times at the Dubai Carnival last spring. Trainer Mike de Kock doesn’t send many runners state side, so when he does they should be feared. #6 Side Glance (12/1) has been facing world class competition the last year as evidenced by his 4th place finish in this year’s Dubai World Cup. #13 Grandeur (7/2) has performed well in 3 previous U.S. tries, and seems well prepared to deliver another top-notch effort. This will be the toughest test he’s faced to date & with his outside draw will not offer good value.

 

Selections 10-6-13

 

Race 11-Hatoof Stakes $65,000, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 3 Year Old Fillies

In the 2nd division of the Hatoof, #9 Frivolous (5/2) broke her maiden against males at Churchill Downs in her only grass try. Anything close to that performance should land her in the winner’s circle. She has 2 nice workouts over the Keeneland Polytrack in preparation to a return to the lawn. #5 Every Way (8/1) drops out of grade 1 company and moves back to the grass, where she is 2-for-3. Trainer Stidham is 20% with layoff runners, and has been working steadily the last 2 months here at Arlington. #2 Street of Gold (8/1) always seems to run a nice race and should be included at a price.

 

Selections 9-5-2

 

Race 12-$39,000 Alw. NW2X, 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf , 3 Year Olds & Up

In a grab bag of a race, #9 Agave Cat (12/1) is undefeated over course and has been working up a storm for his first try since January. Trainer John Good is 9-4-3-0 at the meet so expect Agave Cat to be fit and fresh first time back. #6 Carson’s Crown (5/1) should enjoy a cutback in distance to strengthen his late kick. At longer sprints he appears to hang and not finish the job. #5 Next Speaker (9/2) always lays near the front, but doesn’t need the lead to win. He should be included in all exotics while retaining the services of the red-hot jockey Rosie Napravnik.

 

Selections 9-6-5 

 

 

 

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Older Comments about Arlington Million Full Card Analysis...

Does it bother you that you were SO FAR OFF? Come on you maybe got Dardino- that was it.
Alive to 2,3,7,9,10,12 in the pick 3 let's get a longshot!
Nice analysis Jasen. Best of luck to you and those who will "tail" you.
#10 Colby Tavern pulls off an 11/1 upset in the 5th, getting up in the final strides over Nine Sixteen.
Cameo Appearance surprisingly cold on the board 4/1 off a 2/1 morning line. Fans must be anticipating a quick early pace.
A nice piece, as we all think different, cooler, dry, firm turf, using Million lanes, purses in U$D. TPD
Have a great feeling about this late Pick 4!
Dang, and there's overlapping two Pick 4's and a Pick 5?
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Meet Jasen Mangrum

My interest in the Sport of Kings goes back over 25 years with my father taking me with his friends to the old Ak-Sar-Ben Race Course in Omaha, NE.  From those early experiences I was able to read the Daily Racing Form before the age of 10.  Once The Woodlands opened in Kansas City in 1988, I became totally hooked on the sport studying racing charts after homework and tennis practice.  In recent years, with the explosion of handicapping tournaments, my love for handicapping the races has risen to a new level.  Primarily focused on New York, Chicago and Louisiana racing, I have now been forced to study races far and wide in attempt to find “cap horses” in the tournaments I play.  I have also dabbled in horse ownership within syndicates and on my own.

 

My fondest memories in racing include Silver Charm’s 1997 Kentucky Derby victory.  Both my father and I selected him, which made for a memorable day.  The best race I’ve seen was Tiznow’s first Breeders Cup Classic win in 2000 when he outdueled Giant’s Causeway down the length of the Churchill Downs stretch.   My biggest windfall as a gambler was a pool-scooping pick-4 win, paying over $6,600 at The Woodlands in 2005.

 

The point of this blog is to get everyone out there a few winners, but also to go in depth at how I come to the conclusions that I do.  From week to week, I’ll explain angles I think are important to locate winners.  I encourage others to post picks they like too, but please explain how you come to your conclusions.  That way everyone can learn a little more about this great game, and add another weapon to their handicapping arsenal.-Best of luck, Jasen Mangrum