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HRN Original Blog:
Handicapper's Corner

2013 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Analysis

Unbridled's Note Spa
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

 

The most important prep for the 2013 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was last month’s Eddie D. Stakes (G3) here’s at Santa Anita Park. Five runners from the Eddie D. return to try and take down last year’s champion, Mizdirection. Off since June, Mizdirection is attempting to win again off a lengthy layoff (last year she didn’t race since May 27th) for her famous owner’s (Jim Rome) partnership, Jungle Racing and others. According to trainer Mike Puype, Mizdirection is training great and coming into the race just as good as last year, if not better. This year’s rendition of the Turf Sprint stacks up as one of the toughest with the top 3 finishers from last year returning, other course specialists and multiple graded stakes winners from the East Coast and Canada.

 

 

Here’s a look at the Turf Sprint field from the rail out:

1. Jeranimo 15/1 (V. Espinoza/M. Pender)

2. Rock Me Baby 30/1 (J. Talamo/C. Dollase)

3. Chips All In 5/1 (J. Leparoux/J. Mullins)

4. Reneesgotzip 5/1 (E. Maldonado/P. Miller)

5. Caracortado 8/1 (G. Stevens/M. Machowsky)

6. Boat Trip 8/1 (R. Bejarano/M. Pender)

7. Tightend Touchdown 15/1 (J. Castellano/J. Servis)

8. Handsome Mike 30/1 (M. Gutierrez/D. O’Neill)

9. Capo Bastone 8/1 (J. Rosario/T. Pletcher)

10. Havelock 10/1 (J. Graham/D. Miller)

11. Spring to the Sky 30/1 (J. Velazquez/B. Brown)

12. Mizdirection 4/1 (M. Smith/M. Puype)

13. Dimension 12/1 (D. Moran/C. Murphy)

14. Unbridled’s Note 8/1 (C. Nakatani/S. Asmussen)

 

Last year Mizdirection won this race from off the pace, and it looks like a similar strategy should be used to get the victory, since there looks to be a lot of early speed with the presence of Reneesgotzip, Tightend Touchdown, Spring to the Sky and Dimension. Both Chips All In and Handsome Mike could also add to the early pace, though they are not “need the lead” types.

 

With a quick early pace projected again this year, I will lean towards Unbridled’s Note to rally late and turn the tables on Mizdirection. Second in the 2012 Turf Sprint as the favorite and 3rd in the aforementioned Eddie D. Stakes, Unbridled’s Note has a good record over the course (4-2-1-1), drawn well to the outside and offers great value at anywhere close to his morning line odds of 8/1. Last time out, Unbridled’s Note shuffled back around the turn, boxed in upper stretch and finally got out to finish nicely though too late to challenge the winner, Chips All In. Look for him to improve off that effort, as it was his first start in nearly 5 months.

 

 

Mizdiretion is an obvious contender, but coming into a race of this magnitude off such a long break is difficult, though she did it last year. Plus, this year she’s going to be at least half the price and offers no value in a very contentious race. She needs to be included in all exotics considering she's undefeated down the hill, should get a fast early pace and has a favorable post, but I’m definitely looking to beat her.

 

Caracortado was off since January 2012 before his 4th place finish in the Eddie D., so saying he needed a race is an understatement. He owns 2 victories over the course including one at the unique 6 ½ furlong distance. Expect a major improvement off his last, as he appeared to tire in the last 50 yards after looming boldly in midstretch.

 

Selections

#14 Unbridled’s Note

#12 Mizdirection

#5 Caracortado

#10 Havelock

  

 

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Meet Jasen Mangrum

My interest in the Sport of Kings goes back over 25 years with my father taking me with his friends to the old Ak-Sar-Ben Race Course in Omaha, NE.  From those early experiences I was able to read the Daily Racing Form before the age of 10.  Once The Woodlands opened in Kansas City in 1988, I became totally hooked on the sport studying racing charts after homework and tennis practice.  In recent years, with the explosion of handicapping tournaments, my love for handicapping the races has risen to a new level.  Primarily focused on New York, Chicago and Louisiana racing, I have now been forced to study races far and wide in attempt to find “cap horses” in the tournaments I play.  I have also dabbled in horse ownership within syndicates and on my own.

 

My fondest memories in racing include Silver Charm’s 1997 Kentucky Derby victory.  Both my father and I selected him, which made for a memorable day.  The best race I’ve seen was Tiznow’s first Breeders Cup Classic win in 2000 when he outdueled Giant’s Causeway down the length of the Churchill Downs stretch.   My biggest windfall as a gambler was a pool-scooping pick-4 win, paying over $6,600 at The Woodlands in 2005.

 

The point of this blog is to get everyone out there a few winners, but also to go in depth at how I come to the conclusions that I do.  From week to week, I’ll explain angles I think are important to locate winners.  I encourage others to post picks they like too, but please explain how you come to your conclusions.  That way everyone can learn a little more about this great game, and add another weapon to their handicapping arsenal.-Best of luck, Jasen Mangrum