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Handicapper's Corner

2012 Breeders' Cup Mile: European Contenders

Excelebration will attempt to get out from the shadow of Frankel with a trip to Santa Anita for the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Mile.  The 4-year-old son of Exceed And Excel has won 7 or 13 lifetime starts. 5 of his 6 losses have come to the magnificent Frankel. Scheduled to make his next start in the Group I Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on October 20th, Excelebration should vie for favoritism in the Mile with Wise Dan.


Farhh has been knocking heads with Europe’s finest (Frankel, Nathaniel, and So You Think) and just falling short. Last out, Farhh was a late running second to BC Mile contender, Moonlight Cloud in the Group I Prix de Moulin. Farhh is scheduled to start next in the 1 ¼ miles Grade I Champions Stakes on October 20th. Following the race at Ascot, a decision will be made whether to enter in the BC Mile or Turf.


Moonlight Cloud is a 3-time Grade I winning filly whose stock is on the rise. Though she defeated Farhh last out, she is best known for a nose defeat to super-mare, Black Caviar in the Grade I Diamond Jubilee Stakes last June at Royal Ascot. Moonlight Cloud is scheduled to train up to the BC Mile after her victory Group I Prix de Moulin. 


Cityscape has the advantage of a North American prep when running 3rd behind Wise Dan in the Grade I Woodbine Mile last out. The winner of the Group I Dubai Duty Free last March appears to be a fringe player since already being soundly defeated by many of the top contenders for the BC Mile.


Elusive Kate is no stranger to American soil and will try to improve on her 8th place finish in last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. The multiple Group I winner likes to run on the lead, which could compromise her chances if Americans, Obviously and Little Mike show up.


Caspar Netscher is also returning for a Breeders’ Cup encore after running 8th in last year’s BC Juvenile Turf. The 3-year-old Dutch Art colt has been off the board in his last 3 starts against many of Europe’s top contenders for this race.


Beauty Parlour is one of Europe’s top 3 year old fillies. A winner of 4 of 5, Beauty Parlour is Group I winner at a mile, but longer distances could be in her future. After running second last out in the Group I Prix de Diane at 1 5/16 miles, her year end goals are not set. We could see her show up in the BC Mile, BC Filly/Mare Turf or possibly the Group I Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.


Side Glance has danced in most of Europe’s big dances, while hitting the board in a majority of them, he has never captured Group I glory.  North American racing is not foreign to Side Glance, as he checked in 4th in last year’s Grade I Woodbine Mile. Side Glance is a very consistent horse who can hit the board at a big piece, making for some juicy exotic payoffs.


Power is a 2-time Group I winner and stable mate of top-ranked Excelebration. Though he has not faced elders yet, the 3-year-old son of Oasis Dream appears to be a 1-mile specialist as evidenced with his win in the Group I Irish 2000 Guineas. In that race, he defeated Kentuck Derby starter, Daddy Long Legs and 2011 BC Juvenile Turf winner, Wrote.


Immortal Verse made waves across the pond with her victory last year over Goldikova in the Group I Prix Jacques de Marois. Since that victory she has only hit the board once in 4 starts. A change of scenery may just be what the doctor ordered to turn the tide.


Please be sure to follow me on Twitter-@Cappercorner and/or friend me on facebook.com to continue the horse racing conversation!  

 

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Older Comments about 2012 Breeders' Cup Mile: European Contenders...

I wouldn't sell Wise Dan short, this is a fully mature 5 yo who always fires. If he gets beat they'll have to work for it and Excelebration and Wise Dan seem to be pretty close. Bad timing for Excelebration to have to butt heads with Frankel.
NOBODY will beat Excelebration. The field he beat in France was MUCH more loaded then who ever shows up for the BC Mile. Is the Mile gonna have what 7-8-9 GR1 winners in it?. Excelebration's form is outstanding, he has run every lick vs Frankel, and vs a loaded field in the Jacque de la Marois. Wise Dan needs everything he has in his tank to get to Excelebration in the lane. JMO. Don't get me wrong Wise dan to me is the best North American miler since Soaring free, or even before him in Da hoss. But wise Dan is no Da Hoss just yet, and Soraing free has the 7furlongs Turf record In America. Gonna be a GREAT race, and with Moonlight cloud shipping in also heck ya!!.
At her best you certainly can't discount Moonlight Cloud's chances in the BC Mile. But I personally think she might be a bit better in those 6 to 6-1/2f sprints. Her two wins in the G1 Prix Maurice De Gheest over 6-1/2f are arguably two of the best performances of her career. She's a class filly for sure, but I think she'll find trying to beat Excelebration or Wise Dan at 8f a tough row to hoe.
Curious to see Power in here. His Irish 2000 Guineas was pretty impressive, but Coolmore may feel they have the race cornered with Excelebration.
On paper it does look like Excelebration will outclass her, but Freddie was awfully excited to announce she will be running here......
Thanks for the look at the Euros. I need a lot help in that area.
Moonlight Cloud has received a lot of buzz of late, but I think you got the top European right, Jasen ... Imagine the record Excelebration would have if not for Frankel.

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Meet Jasen Mangrum

My interest in the Sport of Kings goes back over 25 years with my father taking me with his friends to the old Ak-Sar-Ben Race Course in Omaha, NE.  From those early experiences I was able to read the Daily Racing Form before the age of 10.  Once The Woodlands opened in Kansas City in 1988, I became totally hooked on the sport studying racing charts after homework and tennis practice.  In recent years, with the explosion of handicapping tournaments, my love for handicapping the races has risen to a new level.  Primarily focused on New York, Chicago and Louisiana racing, I have now been forced to study races far and wide in attempt to find “cap horses” in the tournaments I play.  I have also dabbled in horse ownership within syndicates and on my own.

 

My fondest memories in racing include Silver Charm’s 1997 Kentucky Derby victory.  Both my father and I selected him, which made for a memorable day.  The best race I’ve seen was Tiznow’s first Breeders Cup Classic win in 2000 when he outdueled Giant’s Causeway down the length of the Churchill Downs stretch.   My biggest windfall as a gambler was a pool-scooping pick-4 win, paying over $6,600 at The Woodlands in 2005.

 

The point of this blog is to get everyone out there a few winners, but also to go in depth at how I come to the conclusions that I do.  From week to week, I’ll explain angles I think are important to locate winners.  I encourage others to post picks they like too, but please explain how you come to your conclusions.  That way everyone can learn a little more about this great game, and add another weapon to their handicapping arsenal.-Best of luck, Jasen Mangrum