Taking Down The Pick 5 Pool -
Anatomy of Pick 5 Crush
The first key to playing a horizontal wager is determining if
you have an edge and if there will be a substantial potential payoff. I
instantly determined that the Valley View Pick 5 sequence was a great
opportunity after scanning the races and seeing full fields with many
vulnerable favorites. I texted my brother and said this would be a 50k
payoff.
With that in mind, I decided to take a big swing. Here were my two main tickets with one small one.
Race 6
The first race was a maiden claimer with ample early speed to
pressure the top two chalks and several value improving trip horses. I
settled on the 6-8-9-10, who I felt all were live prices. After
consulting my new “Project Ultra” PPs and performance figures – I felt very
confident I had ample coverage to get through this leg with a nice price and
move on.
NOTE: “Project Ultra” is the code name for a new PP
product that is currently in Alpha testing.
Less than 50 players are currently using these powerful figures, but you
can sign up to be a Beta tester by emailing us at mail@horseracingnation.com.
Race 7
Leg 2 was the first division of the Valley View and was wide
open with at least 6 horses I liked ranging from 5-1 to 30-1. Here I felt
I had a great chance in wide open race to nail another great price and
move on. The ultra pps confirmed my early suspicions. This race
was completely wide open with very little separating 6 to 7 horses. It
came down to 2 of my selections and my 27-1 Angel Terrace outnosed the 9 at the
wire. If you can ever have mixed feelings catching a 27-1 it was here.
I moved on with a great start to the Pick 5 but missed some massive
trifectas by neglecting to use the 3 horse. The $2 trifecta came back at
over $7,700. Depending on your vernacular you may scream argh, rats,
Fu$&. My choice is usually dammit.
Race 8
Leg 3 was coming and it was time to move on. I was 4
deep here and really liked 2 of my prices for different reasons. The 6
horse Grace for Grace was lone speed after the other speed scratched and Nokaze
the 2 was a live price from the last effort at Delaware. She made a nice
mid move and finished strongly and per the Project
Ultra figs she was on par with the field at a big price. This one went according to
plan. The 6 got away with slow fractions and the 2 made a big late run
but got nosed out. I was 3 for 3 - with three huge prices - and I had the shot at something special.
Race 9
At this point I knew my 50k payoff prediction would be close
if not light. The fourth leg was the Valley View 2nd division. I was four
deep here with Miz Ida, Pianist, Freedom Reigns, and Leading Astray. I
felt pretty good with these but you never know and that's why they run them as
we all say. Pianist stalked the speed and was in good spot but faltered
as Engilsh Class took the lead in the stretch. Miz Ida fortunately bailed
me out with a huge late run to get up by neck. Phew!
Race 10
Now we had one to go and I knew I would have to do some
frantic hedging even though I absolutely loved the 1 horse, Five Afleet
off his sharp Turfway Park win and singled him on a separate pick five ticket.
I had two live tickets to the 1 which was paying over 37k for each and
one each to the 7 and 10 which were paying over 75k each. So after seeing
the whole pool was 125k and doing some quick math I realized that with the 1, 7,
or 10 winning I was taking down the whole pool after adjusting for takeout and
4/5 payouts. I had only done this one other time - when I keyed two
longshots in the 2003 Mac Diamarda Stakes at Gulfstream and took down the whole
superfecta pool ($70k) before the advent of the dime super. You rarely
see that now except at smaller tracks with smaller pools.
Now onto the hedging, which is always difficult. I felt I had to cover roughly 6 other
possibles in case they won so I would cash for some decent coin at minimum.
There were 2 bombs that realistically had a very small chance but at
30-1 they each got a Benjamin from me in case I got Mine That Birded.
After that I basically just started pounding 20 exacta wheels with the
other contenders hitting repeat numerous times and hitting the 2nd choice even
more. $2,800 bucks in I was relatively hedged for any possible scenario.
Onto the race. My eyes were glued to the red
orange and purple saddle clothes of the 1-7-10 as they went around. As
the race unfolded I was 1 of 3 as far as trips. My 1 was saving ground the
whole way and looked to have a ton but the 7 and 10 were getting wide runs.
As they came into the stretch the 1 got a nice rail run and exploded.
He won by 5 and I really didn't have to yell One! One! One! more than a
couple times and he heard me and was home free. Two Pick 5 winning
tickets. Total cash with the 4/5s was just over $79k before taxes.
Now onto the Breeders Cup and the even more elusive white
whale - the Breeders’ Cup Pick Six.
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