I am finally ready for my first play of 2013. This
will officially start my bankroll wagers as well. I will begin with a
$3000 stake and will blog weekly plays and detail the winners and losers along
with my running ROI for the year. I will try to delineate my best angles
and logic for selecting my "bombs" and hopefully be in the minority
and turn a profit for the year. Let's get started.
In Santa Anita's 10th race today, we have a full field on runners,
which is always a prerequisite to finding a price horse. It accomplishes
two things. First, it ensures an honest pace scenario the majority of the time
and second, it creates value with many horses to choose from.
After handicapping this race it becomes clear that the pace
will be hot with the 1 2 3 5 7 8 and 13 all contesting the lead and that the ML
fav #2 is very vulnerable because of his early speed running style. This
is exactly the type of race we are looking for to zero in on a bomb.
There are a few closers that will benefit from the hot early fractions
but I'm landing on # 4 Star Navigator who has one of the best speed figures in
an evenly matched race and is a juicy 15-1 ML as well. He ran a big
closing 4th while 3 to 4 wide in his last, has 2 nice works and gets a much
better post in the 4 hole so he figures to improve big time at a number.
If the track is fair I think he will fire a big effort. His main
competition may come from # 14 Et Tu Walker 9/2 ML trained by Doug O'Neill who
has a similar closing style and ran 2nd in the same last race but with the 4 we
get a better post and price. Now let's get onto the play.
Let's start the bankroll plays with $50 WP on
#4 for a total bet of $100
Good luck and Bombs Away!