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Hot Pace Offers Big Bomb in Santa Anita's 10th

I am finally ready for my first play of 2013. This will officially start my bankroll wagers as well. I will begin with a $3000 stake and will blog weekly plays and detail the winners and losers along with my running ROI for the year. I will try to delineate my best angles and logic for selecting my "bombs" and hopefully be in the minority and turn a profit for the year. Let's get started.


In Santa Anita's 10th race today, we have a full field on runners, which is always a prerequisite to finding a price horse. It accomplishes two things. First, it ensures an honest pace scenario the majority of the time and second, it creates value with many horses to choose from.  
 
After handicapping this race it becomes clear that the pace will be hot with the 1 2 3 5 7 8 and 13 all contesting the lead and that the ML fav #2 is very vulnerable because of his early speed running style.  This is exactly the type of race we are looking for to zero in on a bomb.  There are a few closers that will benefit from the hot early fractions but I'm landing on # 4 Star Navigator who has one of the best speed figures in an evenly matched race and is a juicy 15-1 ML as well.  He ran a big closing 4th while 3 to 4 wide in his last, has 2 nice works and gets a much better post in the 4 hole so he figures to improve big time at a number.  If the track is fair I think he will fire a big effort.  His main competition may come from # 14 Et Tu Walker 9/2 ML trained by Doug O'Neill who has a similar closing style and ran 2nd in the same last race but with the 4 we get a better post and price. Now let's get onto the play.
 
Let's start the bankroll plays with $50 WP on #4 for a total bet of $100
 
Good luck and Bombs Away!

 

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Mike Midland has been playing the races for over 23 years now.  I became instantly hooked after nailing my first trifecta (a $310 windfall on a $6 ticket) back in 1988.  I was fortunate to grow up minutes from Arlington Park and still have vivid memories of handicapping in the car and subsequent windsprints with my brother from the free remote lot in an attempt to get down on the early double.

There is nothing like dissecting a race and forming a strong contrarian opinion on the outcome and then getting paid when it transpires.  I, like many horseplayers, have a special affinity for my bombs and major scores over the years.  Whether it was Marquetry at 48 -1, One Dreamer wiring the Breeders' Distaff, Volponi crushing in the Classic at 43-1 or Shared Account recently getting up in the Filly and Mare turf, I remember them all fondly and always root extra hard for them in their next outing even though I knew I wouldn't cash big if they won.

In this blog we will focus on value plays and creating value through the use of tiered exotic wagers.  Our best bets won't be 6-5 shots but 12-1, 20-1, 30-1's that are going to outrun their odds.  We will handicap, provide insight into our best angles, detail hedging strategies, structure our bets, analyze what we did right and wrong and hopefully make some meaningful coin along the way.  We will also keep a bankroll ledger so the HRN can sound in on our bets us and ROI.

The first step to finding is identifying a bettable race with a false favorite. Our value style of handicapping will incorporate pace analysis with particular focus on not only the progression of certain horses but also the anticipated regression of chalks which has resulted in some major scores for us.

Bio bullets:
Won Twin Spires Handicapping tournament in January 2011 beating out 972 other players.

Best score: 
Took down superfecta pool at Gulfstream of $69,000 on a$32 ticket in 2003 Mac Diarmida (G3)
Qualified for NHC in 2006


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