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HRN Original Blog:
BombsAway's Blog

Bombs in Turfway Stake

The Turfway stake today offers a ton of value with a contentious full field of 12 going to the post.  After capping I have landed on the 2 inside runners #1 (Helen Belen 10-1 ML) and the #2 (Miss Dora 20-1 ML). 

There should be a legimate pace with the 4 5 9 knocking heads upfront and our picks should get ideal inside stalking trips. Both fillies ran well in their latest race.  The #1 won her last by a half length while 4 wide off a short rest at Chuchill Downs and the #2 finished 5th in a BCup 87k race while 4 wide but won her start 2 back on the Turfway track.  Other positives inlcude the local records for the #1 (3/7 at TP) and #2 (1/1 at TP).   They both also have posted solid 4f breezes so come into the race in excellent form.  This is a wide open race so let's try and nail a nice tri keying our two prices in the 1st and 2nd slots.

The tickets are .50 tri part wheel 12/1234789101112/12346789101112 for $81.00 and .50 tri part wheel 1234789101112/12/12346789101112 for $81.00.  Total cost $162  I would also consider playing a .50 tri part wheel 12/12/all for $10 and a 12/all/12 for $10 for players looking to double up and try for a crush race or cost effective players wishing to cut down on a big ticket.

 

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Mike Midland has been playing the races for over 23 years now.  I became instantly hooked after nailing my first trifecta (a $310 windfall on a $6 ticket) back in 1988.  I was fortunate to grow up minutes from Arlington Park and still have vivid memories of handicapping in the car and subsequent windsprints with my brother from the free remote lot in an attempt to get down on the early double.

There is nothing like dissecting a race and forming a strong contrarian opinion on the outcome and then getting paid when it transpires.  I, like many horseplayers, have a special affinity for my bombs and major scores over the years.  Whether it was Marquetry at 48 -1, One Dreamer wiring the Breeders' Distaff, Volponi crushing in the Classic at 43-1 or Shared Account recently getting up in the Filly and Mare turf, I remember them all fondly and always root extra hard for them in their next outing even though I knew I wouldn't cash big if they won.

In this blog we will focus on value plays and creating value through the use of tiered exotic wagers.  Our best bets won't be 6-5 shots but 12-1, 20-1, 30-1's that are going to outrun their odds.  We will handicap, provide insight into our best angles, detail hedging strategies, structure our bets, analyze what we did right and wrong and hopefully make some meaningful coin along the way.  We will also keep a bankroll ledger so the HRN can sound in on our bets us and ROI.

The first step to finding is identifying a bettable race with a false favorite. Our value style of handicapping will incorporate pace analysis with particular focus on not only the progression of certain horses but also the anticipated regression of chalks which has resulted in some major scores for us.

Bio bullets:
Won Twin Spires Handicapping tournament in January 2011 beating out 972 other players.

Best score: 
Took down superfecta pool at Gulfstream of $69,000 on a$32 ticket in 2003 Mac Diarmida (G3)
Qualified for NHC in 2006