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BombsAway in the Keeneland Nightcap

After a brief hiatus due to some turf washouts plays and a Mickey Mouse trip, we are back with a 15-1 ML pick #6 Lighthouse Sound in Keeneland's 10th race today. This is a contentious field of 12 but I feel the 6 should sit an ideal stalking trip and put in a nice late run.  

Lighthouse Sound just missed in his last at Momouth Park.   He stalked some modest fractions and closed in a sub 24 last quarter but the winner prevailed by a neck.  With some better fractions to run at today courtesy of the 2, 8, and 10, his late run should put him in the mix at the wire. We will keep the play fairly simple for this one.  $50 win #6 and hedge a place finish by wheeling a $10 exacta with the logical contenders over the #6.  $10 exacta wheel 345789/6.  Finally let's play a $4 exacta wheel 1 10 11 12/6 with a few outsiders that could pop at a big number.  Total plays $126

 

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Mike Midland has been playing the races for over 23 years now.  I became instantly hooked after nailing my first trifecta (a $310 windfall on a $6 ticket) back in 1988.  I was fortunate to grow up minutes from Arlington Park and still have vivid memories of handicapping in the car and subsequent windsprints with my brother from the free remote lot in an attempt to get down on the early double.

There is nothing like dissecting a race and forming a strong contrarian opinion on the outcome and then getting paid when it transpires.  I, like many horseplayers, have a special affinity for my bombs and major scores over the years.  Whether it was Marquetry at 48 -1, One Dreamer wiring the Breeders' Distaff, Volponi crushing in the Classic at 43-1 or Shared Account recently getting up in the Filly and Mare turf, I remember them all fondly and always root extra hard for them in their next outing even though I knew I wouldn't cash big if they won.

In this blog we will focus on value plays and creating value through the use of tiered exotic wagers.  Our best bets won't be 6-5 shots but 12-1, 20-1, 30-1's that are going to outrun their odds.  We will handicap, provide insight into our best angles, detail hedging strategies, structure our bets, analyze what we did right and wrong and hopefully make some meaningful coin along the way.  We will also keep a bankroll ledger so the HRN can sound in on our bets us and ROI.

The first step to finding is identifying a bettable race with a false favorite. Our value style of handicapping will incorporate pace analysis with particular focus on not only the progression of certain horses but also the anticipated regression of chalks which has resulted in some major scores for us.

Bio bullets:
Won Twin Spires Handicapping tournament in January 2011 beating out 972 other players.

Best score: 
Took down superfecta pool at Gulfstream of $69,000 on a$32 ticket in 2003 Mac Diarmida (G3)
Qualified for NHC in 2006


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