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BombsAway Longshot Blog has a Longshot Trifecta

The 6th at Saratoga is right in our bomber wheelhouse.  We catch a full field which ensures an honest pace scenario and no jockey cat and mouse games after they handicapped the race and more importantly we get VALUE.

The 2-4-5-8-12 all figure to knock heads in the early going, followed by the 3,7,11 in the second flight and the 1,6,9 coming from the rear. With the quintet of speedballs softening up each other, we will land on two nice priced closers (#1 Julians' Approval and #6 Lights Out Lisa) as our trifecta keys.  The #1 looks attractive for two main reasons.  First, she learned how win in her last race.  Horses close to becoming career maidens often show vast improvement after figuring things out.  This is a great angle which always provides an inflated price due to skepticism.  Second, she closed her last half furlong in under 6 seconds and with the anticipated speed duel up front she will be flying late at 20-1 ML.

Our second closer is the # 6 Lights out Lisa.  She ran competitive figures in 2 May starts at Belmont then encountered trouble two back and had her last race taken off the grass.  The 4f bullet breeze on Aug 23rd which was the best of 36 gives us confidence that she can run back to her solid May turf sprinting form and she has finished in the money on the Saratoga turf in 2/3 starts.

So let's key the 1 & 6 in the one and two slots of 2 trifecta partial wheels and root for the 1-6-9 W2G! 

The plays:   16/12367911/12367911 $60 play
                     12367911/16/12367911 $60 play

Total cost $120

8/27 - Post Race Review
We nailed the pace scenario as they flew early going 21-3 44-2 in the first half of the race.  One of our key horses #6 Lights Out Lisa placed closing for second but we didn't use the winner #5 Strategic Missile who ran huge in just his 2nd start following a year on the shelf.  The trifecta came back in the signer zone at $667 for 1 dollar and the speed actually held up very well after the testing early fractions.  The winner #5 sat second and the pace setter held on for fourth after blazing through the first half of the turf sprint so the turf may have been more conducive to early speed types.

Bottom Line--we were on right path and had on of our key prices come through but whiffed to the tune of $120 and the bankroll gets dinged. We will be back with a holiday price for the Monday cards.















Courtesy of Daily Racing Form

 

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Older Comments about BombsAway Longshot Blog has a Longshot Trifecta...

Good call on the 6, but unfortunately the 5 held on.
We are going for some big IRS tickets today! Check out my new longshot blog!

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Mike Midland has been playing the races for over 23 years now.  I became instantly hooked after nailing my first trifecta (a $310 windfall on a $6 ticket) back in 1988.  I was fortunate to grow up minutes from Arlington Park and still have vivid memories of handicapping in the car and subsequent windsprints with my brother from the free remote lot in an attempt to get down on the early double.

There is nothing like dissecting a race and forming a strong contrarian opinion on the outcome and then getting paid when it transpires.  I, like many horseplayers, have a special affinity for my bombs and major scores over the years.  Whether it was Marquetry at 48 -1, One Dreamer wiring the Breeders' Distaff, Volponi crushing in the Classic at 43-1 or Shared Account recently getting up in the Filly and Mare turf, I remember them all fondly and always root extra hard for them in their next outing even though I knew I wouldn't cash big if they won.

In this blog we will focus on value plays and creating value through the use of tiered exotic wagers.  Our best bets won't be 6-5 shots but 12-1, 20-1, 30-1's that are going to outrun their odds.  We will handicap, provide insight into our best angles, detail hedging strategies, structure our bets, analyze what we did right and wrong and hopefully make some meaningful coin along the way.  We will also keep a bankroll ledger so the HRN can sound in on our bets us and ROI.

The first step to finding is identifying a bettable race with a false favorite. Our value style of handicapping will incorporate pace analysis with particular focus on not only the progression of certain horses but also the anticipated regression of chalks which has resulted in some major scores for us.

Bio bullets:
Won Twin Spires Handicapping tournament in January 2011 beating out 972 other players.

Best score: 
Took down superfecta pool at Gulfstream of $69,000 on a$32 ticket in 2003 Mac Diarmida (G3)
Qualified for NHC in 2006