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HRN Original Blog:
Across the Board with Mike B

Kentucky Derby Pick 4

Wicked Strong Wood Memorial 2 615 X 400
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire - Sue Kawczynski
 
This Saturday, at approximately 6:24pm, a field of nineteen three-year-olds will line up in the gate at Churchill Downs for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby and a shot at glory. As for us horseplayers, we have a shot at Derby glory as well. The pools are huge and if we can get a few of our strong opinions home, and get lucky with a few longshots, it can make for an unforgettable day. I will be taking a look at the Pick 4 culminating with the Kentucky Derby. Let’s delve right in and see if we can dope out some winners…  
I wish I could tell you I have a strong opinion this race, but I do not at all. I am going to spread deep here with Chief BarkerLong On ValueCraftsmanBig BazingaGeneral JackPicozza, and Woodfield Springs. My top selection is Chief Barker, as I believe trainer Larry Rivelli will have this one cranked up for his stateside debut on Derby day. Picozza and Woodfield Springs are obvious contenders and definitely have a shot. As for General Jack and Long On Value, I am taking a stab with these two. General Jack had some trouble in his last and I am hoping with Rosie aboard today, and going third off the layoff, he shows his best. Long On Value was added at the last minute in hopes he wakes up by getting back on the turf with Rosario in the irons. Craftsmen seems to be rounding into form and may be the speed of the speed. And lastly, Big Bazinga, I have heard he has looked great in the morning all week. A notable horse I left out was Quotient. While I believe he is talented he has also has looked very green. Shipping in from California, I think he is worth playing against.
I love Clearly Now to rebound in this spot. I was alive to him with a lot of action on Wood Memorial day and he had a tough trip, after a troubled start, and still managed to get the show. I am hoping he repays me for my loyalty today. With that said, this is still a pretty tough race and I will use a couple more, Sahara Sky and Shakin It Up, just in case he falters or finds trouble again. Sahara Sky is one of the best sprinters in the business, and Shakin It Up is no slouch either. That trio should get us through this leg.
I have learned my lesson, time and time again, trying to beat Wise Dan. I have used every excuse to try and beat him and he just always (almost always) comes through. I am taking the free square in the Pick 4. Wise Dan all day.
The 140th Kentucky Derby 
Going into the post position draw, I thought I had this all figured out. I thought either California Chrome or Wicked Strong would be draped in roses at around 6:45pm early Saturday evening. After the draw, I have worries, but not enough to make me toss them out. What the draw did do though was make me start looking elsewhere for other horses who I believe have a shot. So along with that pair I will also throw in a couple of horses who have looked great in the morning, Dance With Fate and Medal Count. Both have questions as to whether they will handle the dirt in the afternoon, but they have sure impressed during training hours. In order of preference Wicked Strong remains my top pick even after the draw, followed by California Chrome, Medal Count, and Dance With Fate.
The Play: 50¢ Pick 4 will cost $42…2-4-6-7-9-10-11 with 2-4-11 with 1 with 5-12-14-20
Have a great Derby day, everyone!!!! Best of luck at the windows!
       



 

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Older Comments about Kentucky Derby Pick 4...

Using the same “free square” as everyone else is sooo Schrupian… Cali Chrome will have a much smaller % of the pool linked to him… of course, after the Woodford Reserve, this might not be such a Bright Thought :)
I'm surprised you didn't use the Chad Brown horse in race 8 but maybe you will since Big Bazinga scratched.
Got to go with Wise Dan. He won the same race last year and the $2 Pick 4 paid $358.

Categories

 Meet Michael Barry   

 

 It all started 5 years ago for me after a spur of the moment trip to Saratoga Springs with my future wife.  I had always bet on the Triple Crown races, and made a few trips to Suffolk Downs annually, but not until that journey to The Spa did things get serious for me.  I fell in love with horse racing right then and there and I haven’t looked back since.  The following year I read every handicapping book I could get my hands on.  I became, and still am, a very passionate student of the game. 

 

Through this blog I hope to take you guys through my favorite aspect of the game, which is breaking down races and doping out winners.  I focus my attention between the NYRA circuit (mostly), Gulfstream Park, and Keeneland.  I also plan to provide very thorough coverage leading up to the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup.  I love analyzing the prep races leading up to both of those grand events. 

 

Wagering wise, I love playing pick 4’s and 5’s, and I have enjoyed some success in the past playing those types of exotics.  In any given race, I try to attack based on strength of opinion and value.  That may be in the form of an exacta, trifecta, superfecta, daily double, pick 3, or by laddering my choice across the board.  Every race is its own animal and must be played accordingly.

 

Personally, I am a graduate of Boston University and reside on the South Shore of Massachusetts with my beautiful wife Tara and wonderful son Finn.  I work as a technician for a communications company by day. 

 

I can be found on Twitter @mbarry24 and I’m always up to discuss anything horse racing related.