Photo: Eclipse Sportswire
This Saturday at Keeneland,a full field of 3 year old
fillies will take center stage in the Grade 2 Raven Run contested at 7
furlongs. This contest will highlight
the card and the Pick 5 that we will be taking a crack at. I found the sequence to be pretty tough, but
I do have some solid opinions. I didn’t
find any crazy live long shots in the series but I do have some square priced
horses included that definitely have a chance to spice this thing up. We kick things off with a tricky N2X turf
sprint, let’s begin there.
Race 6: I found this leg to be the toughest. It is a race that on paper is loaded with
speed, but I worry one of them will sneak off and get loose on the lead. The
more I play it out in my head though, I rule it out. I’m torn that it could happen, but I can’t
see any of the front runners actually pulling it off. That’s what made this leg tough for me. I am going to go with three presser/stalker
types in here with Spring Formal, Gator Zone, and Crookedpathtoglory. I will say I am a little scared of Toto Cor,
who is dropping out of a Grade 2 for this.
But as I said earlier, I just feel there is too much speed in here and
that she will be compromised because of that.
Race 7: This leg features a nice group of 2 year old
fillies going 7 panels. I am going four
deep in here with Azha, Altagracia, Lemon de Oro, and Easy Chair. This race has no speed on paper. There are some first time starters in here
that may show some early foot, but none of them have been working fast in the
mornings. That’s where Azha and Easy
Chair come in to play. Azha showed speed
last out here at Keeneland in her 2nd career start in a route. It wasn’t blazing speed by any means, but I
have a feeling she will be sent from the rail.
Now normally I stay away from the rail horses in elongated sprints,
especially out of a chute, but I just feel there is no pace in here and maybe
she works out a nice trip at an even nicer price. As for Easy Chair, I don’t need to waste my breath
telling you Todd Pletcher has his 2 year olds fast and ready to run. I’m not completely sold on her in here, but
she may show some speed and I’m not going to let her knock me out of this thing. Altagracia is a 2nd time starter
for Darrin Miller, she has every right to improve and I think she may be overlooked
on the tote. Lemon de Oro was almost my
single for the Pick 5 but I wasn’t brave enough to do it. She is a 3rd time starter for
Graham Motion. She adds lasix for today
and cuts back in distance off two soggy route races in New York.
She has a bullet work for this and I think she has a huge shot. I may key her in a trifecta in here and play
her across the board as well.
Race 8: Next up we have 1 ½ mile N1X on the
turf. I am going to single Global
Express in here. I just think he will
relish the distance and he is a step above his opponents here. He ran well enough for a decent 4th
in the Breeders Stakes at Woodbine coming right off his maiden score. All of his turf starts have been nice and I
have faith in Roger Attfield on this one.
I was a little interested in River Lemon, One Golden Road, and Paroled. I just couldn’t get past Global Express, though. If you don’t trust the single, I would take a look at those three I just listed above.
Race9: When I first cracked open my past
performances for the Grade 2 Raven Run my mouth was salivating. I love elongated sprints, and I love full
fields. I couldn’t wait to try and dope
out a bomb for this race. After careful
deliberation, I landed on the morning line favorite. I couldn’t believe it! I just can’t get by her though. I am going to single Silsita. I tried and tried to find a price horse in
here and I just couldn’t. Silsita is
going to run big I think. I feel 7
furlongs is going to be perfect for her and her best race to date is on
synthetics. It doesn’t hurt either that
Pletcher is red hot with his limited Keeneland starters. As for the others, I took long looks at
Sittin At the Bar, Lighthouse
Bay, Jewel of a Cat,
Elusive Fate, Ciao Bella Luna, and My Option.
In my opinion, I don’t trust any of those fillies. I will say though My Option worries me a bit,
I can’t figure her out. I wonder if she
will like 7 furlongs. I wouldn’t be
totally shocked if any of those fillies won, but I just think the upside of
Silsita trumps all of them in here.
Race 10: The Pick 5 concludes with a turf route for
maidens. If the Pick 5 Gods allow, we
will be alive to Cosmic Karma, Mutasaawy, Kiton, and Mt Tronador. I don’t have any super strong opinions in
here but I am hoping those four will be enough to get it done. Cosmic Karma for Jonathon Sheppard, had
trouble at the break in his last and I expect him to run well today. Mutasaawy comes in off a layoff for Daniel
Pietz, he’s been working dynamite for this and adds lasix today. Kiton, I'm taking a flyer with this one, he’s
coming in off a layoff for Elizabeth Gray.
He’s removing the shades and has run well at Keeneland in the past. Mt Tronador, the Ben Colebrook trainee, is
coming in 2nd off the layoff after a nice 4th off the
bench over at Kentucky Downs. I do fear
Indy Awesome and Forty Four North a little bit and I wouldn’t blame your for
including those two on your tickets as well.
The Play: 50 cent Pick 5….4-8-10 with 1-4-11-12 with 8
with 4 with 6-9-10-11, a modest play for the cost of 24 dollars.
As always, I am here to give you guys food for thought. I want to give you confidence in your
decisions, maybe turn you on to something you missed or didn’t think of, or
help you eliminate non contenders and pretenders. That is my mission to you. Good luck and good vibes. Have a winning day.