Photo: Eclipse Spotswire
This Saturday at Gulfstream Park we will be celebrating Sunshine Millions Day in honor of our Florida bred equines. A fantastic card was assembled and there are a lot of competitive races on tap for us to solve. If that wasn’t enough to get you excited, it also marks the return of the BC Classic’s hero Mucho Macho Man. As usual, I focused my attention on the Pick 5. I found the sequence to be pretty manageable, especially since Mucho Macho Man seems to be a virtual lock. As for the other races in the sequence, I definitely think there are some square priced horses that could win. Without further ado, let’s delve into this thing….
Race 7 – This is a race I believe could get very hot up front. So, I opted to go three deep here with horses that will be coming from a bit off the pace. I will use Salamera, Sweet N Discreet, and My Pal Chrisy. My Pal Chrisy and Sweet N Discreet are both coming out of the same race, the Ocala Stakes, and I think they may have been up against the track that day. In that race I don’t know how the pacesetter, Devils Cave, held on for the win. Either she is a very game and talented horse, or she was aided by a speed bias. I am going with she was indeed aided by the bias that day, and in my mind that moves up the chances of both My Pal Chrisy and Sweet N Discreet. I also like that they both are cutting back for this. As for Salamera, I added this one out of fear. I don’t like that he has the rail, but I find it very interesting Javier Castellano jumps aboard. At 8/1 on the morning line, I just had to throw her in. She goes out for the second time off a real long layoff and has been working fine for this. If she improves, she definitely has an upset chance.
Race 8 – I found this to be a pretty tricky race and I went five deep. I just could not get a handle on this one. I am going to use Spring Up, Hobbs, Star Channel, Bad Debt, and Old Time Hockey. I like Spring Up quite a bit, but I am worried about his class. He has never raced above the N1X level. Hobbs I am taking a shot with. He is 20/1 on the morning line and I don’t think he is as bad as his last. I also like the fact that Paco Lopez stays on. I know it may be a reach, but if he can score it might make this Pick 5 very, very interesting. Bad Debt definitely can take this home and is pretty logical. He has burned money in the past though, which is never a good sign. But, if he runs his “A” game, he has a major shot. And as for Old Time Hockey, I included him from a class standpoint. He is dropping out of three straight Grade 2’s on the west coast where he didn’t run badly at all. The one I will be scared of is Tune Me In. He makes his first start for Christophe Clement and is returning off a layoff. Looking at his races I was not impressed and I did not like the probable short price he will be. With that said, Clemente can indeed wake up a horse. I totally understand if you want to add him in as well.
Race 9 – I really like this race. I think Fort Loudon and Apriority both have a huge chance to win this. I believe both will be square prices as well. Fort Loudon finally gets off the rail after being stuck down there for three straight races. I expect a big run from him in here today. And as for Apriority, I think he is going to love getting back on a dry track. I am going to key off of these two as every which way I can.
Race 10 – Three words. MUCHO. MACHO. MAN. Enough said. In all seriousness, it would be a major shock if he lost. Only way I would think about including any other horse in this race is if the track got wet. Otherwise, he should demolish this field. Welcome back, champ.
Race 11 – In the night cap I went two deep. I am not super confident in my selections, but I think we are in good hands. I chose to go with Easton Arch for trainer Shug McGaughey, and Miss Lech for trainer Chad Brown. Easton Arch makes his first start for Shug’s barn and his first start in the States. Shug has good stats on both maneuvers and I expect him to run well. He gets the services of Joel Rosario and Lasix for the first time as well. Miss Lech comes into this off of a layoff, keeps Castellano in the saddle, and should be ready to run. As for the others, you could make a case for quite a few of them. I landed here, but I understand if you want to go deeper. Regardless, I think the discussion has to begin with the two that I opted for.
The Play – I am going to play a fifty cent Pick 5 that will cost $30. I will go: 1-2-3 with 2-4-5-7-10 with 5-8 with 4 with 9-10.
As always, I hope I was helpful in strengthening your own opinions, or that I turned you onto something you may not have thought of. Have a great weekend at the windows, everybody. Good luck on all your wagers.