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HRN Original Blog:
Across the Board with Mike B

Gulfstream: Gr. 3 Mr. Prospector Analysis

Apriority 615 X 400
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire - Aaron Haggart

They say pace makes the race. Well, the Gr. 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes is a classic example of just how true that is. This race is very pace sensitive in my eyes. The difference between cashing and ripping tickets in this event will depend on how right you are in your estimation of the early pace. A single scratch of a key pace player could change the whole complexion of the race. I found this race to be pretty tough, but if we are right, I think we could be rewarded. Let’s take a look at the field…


1. Fort Loudon – I view this guy as a possible pace factor, nothing more. He is stuck on the rail for the 3rd straight race and I do not think he enjoys being down there. I believe he will be sent from the rail and may foil the chances of others, but I just can’t pick him on top. It wouldn’t totally shock me if he won, but I just do not see him getting a great trip. He will have to do it without my backing.


2. Trinni Heart – No way. It would be a complete and total shock if he pulled this off. He is a non-factor in my humble opinion.


3. Star Harbour – The Speed of the speed, I believe. His chances, though, may be hindered by how much pressure he gets up front. I am taking a shot against him in here because I do think he will be bothered by the other speed horses. If I am wrong in that opinion, it’s curtains for me because he very well could wire the field. If any of the frontrunners scratch though, he must be given a hard look again. As of now, I will take a stand against.


4. Upgrade – I gave this one a long, hard look. He may sit a very nice trip 2-3 lengths off the lead. In the end though, I decided I will limit his use to underneath in the exotics. His last race was decent, and he did lose to a fine horse in Bulldozer, but I just couldn’t pick him on top. I can’t blame you if you include him, at 12-1 on the ML, I would never try to talk you off him. I would not be surprised at all if he ran well.


5. Travelin Man – This guy loves Gulfstream, as you can see by his record, but I don’t trust his form right now. This Pletcher trainee will take some money at the windows, but I’m just not so sure he is the same horse he once was. If he wins I will not be shocked, but he will do it without me.


6. Singanothersong – This is the one that intrigues me. I think he is in the best form of his life right now and he may be able to sit a real nice trip. He has the speed to stay close to Star Harbour and press while breaking outside of him. I am hoping for him to put that foe away and still have enough to hold off the stalkers. At 8/1 on the ML, I think this one has a heck of a shot and that now is the time to have him.


7. Apriority – This guy is an old friend of mine. We have had a rocky relationship to say the least. Today, I am hoping he might be able to pay me back for some of the times he has let me down. I liked his last race a lot, and if it gets hot enough up front, I think he will be the one swooping buy to take the cash. He goes 3rd off the layoff here and has been working well for this. I expect a nice effort.


8. Black Diamond Cat – I found this one to be a bit tricky. He had a real tough trip last out while racing between horses pressing a quick pace. He goes out 2nd off the layoff for this and has a right to improve. I am just not so sure he will. At 3/1 on the ML, I am going to stand against him. He does have the ability to pop a big one, but I would insist on a price with this one.  

 

Pace Projection: I see Star Harbour out front with Fort Loudon hounding him from the inside, and Singanothersong on his flank from the outside. I am banking on either Singanothersong putting him away at the top of the lane and holding off the closers, or having Apriority closing best late to swoop by for the win.


The Play: I am going to lean on Singanothersong and Apriority. I will key both in the exacta and Multi-race wagers. I will also ladder Singanothersong across the board.

 

As always, best of luck everyone. I hope I helped solidify your own opinions or turned you onto a different idea you may not have thought of. Have a winning day, guys. 

 

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Older Comments about Gulfstream: Gr. 3 Mr. Prospector Analysis...

Nice call on the winner, Mike!
sticking with Singanothersong...adding Upgrade for outside shot
Wasn't old Mr Prsopector undeated in a short career.Can't recall
I had that Apriority kind of relationship with the sprinter Kodiak Kowboy.
oh, it is Loudon :)
He's thinking what I'm thinking, Fort Louden.
Beware my old friend Fort Loudon!

 Meet Michael Barry   

 

 It all started 5 years ago for me after a spur of the moment trip to Saratoga Springs with my future wife.  I had always bet on the Triple Crown races, and made a few trips to Suffolk Downs annually, but not until that journey to The Spa did things get serious for me.  I fell in love with horse racing right then and there and I haven’t looked back since.  The following year I read every handicapping book I could get my hands on.  I became, and still am, a very passionate student of the game. 

 

Through this blog I hope to take you guys through my favorite aspect of the game, which is breaking down races and doping out winners.  I focus my attention between the NYRA circuit (mostly), Gulfstream Park, and Keeneland.  I also plan to provide very thorough coverage leading up to the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup.  I love analyzing the prep races leading up to both of those grand events. 

 

Wagering wise, I love playing pick 4’s and 5’s, and I have enjoyed some success in the past playing those types of exotics.  In any given race, I try to attack based on strength of opinion and value.  That may be in the form of an exacta, trifecta, superfecta, daily double, pick 3, or by laddering my choice across the board.  Every race is its own animal and must be played accordingly.

 

Personally, I am a graduate of Boston University and reside on the South Shore of Massachusetts with my beautiful wife Tara and wonderful son Finn.  I work as a technician for a communications company by day. 

 

I can be found on Twitter @mbarry24 and I’m always up to discuss anything horse racing related.