Photo: Eclipse Sportswire - Aaron Haggart
They say pace makes the race. Well, the Gr. 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes is a classic example of just how true that is. This race is very pace sensitive
in my eyes. The difference between cashing and ripping tickets in this event
will depend on how right you are in your estimation of the early pace. A single scratch of
a key pace player could change the whole complexion of the race. I found this
race to be pretty tough, but if we are right, I think we could be rewarded.
Let’s take a look at the field…
1. Fort Loudon – I view this guy as a possible pace
factor, nothing more. He is stuck on the rail for the 3rd straight
race and I do not think he enjoys being down there. I believe he will be sent
from the rail and may foil the chances of others, but I just can’t pick him on
top. It wouldn’t totally shock me if he won, but I just do not see him getting
a great trip. He will have to do it without my backing.
2. Trinni Heart – No way. It would be a complete and
total shock if he pulled this off. He is a non-factor in my humble opinion.
3. Star Harbour – The Speed of the speed, I believe.
His chances, though, may be hindered by how much pressure he gets up front. I am
taking a shot against him in here because I do think he will be bothered by the
other speed horses. If I am wrong in that opinion, it’s curtains for me because
he very well could wire the field. If any of the frontrunners scratch though,
he must be given a hard look again. As of now, I will take a stand against.
4. Upgrade – I gave this one a long, hard look.
He may sit a very nice trip 2-3 lengths off the lead. In the end though, I
decided I will limit his use to underneath in the exotics. His last race was
decent, and he did lose to a fine horse in Bulldozer, but I just couldn’t pick
him on top. I can’t blame you if you include him, at 12-1 on the ML, I would
never try to talk you off him. I would not be surprised at all if he ran well.
5. Travelin Man – This guy loves Gulfstream, as you
can see by his record, but I don’t trust his form right now. This Pletcher trainee will take some money at the windows, but I’m just not so sure he is the
same horse he once was. If he wins I will not be shocked, but he will do it
6. Singanothersong – This is the one that intrigues me.
I think he is in the best form of his life right now and he may be able to sit
a real nice trip. He has the speed to stay close to Star Harbour
and press while breaking outside of him. I am hoping for him to put that foe
away and still have enough to hold off the stalkers. At 8/1 on the ML, I think
this one has a heck of a shot and that now is the time to have him.
7. Apriority – This guy is an old friend of mine.
We have had a rocky relationship to say the least. Today, I am hoping he might
be able to pay me back for some of the times he has let me down. I liked his
last race a lot, and if it gets hot enough up front, I think he will be the one
swooping buy to take the cash. He goes 3rd off the layoff here and
has been working well for this. I expect a nice effort.
8. Black Diamond Cat – I found this one to be a bit
tricky. He had a real tough trip last out while racing between horses pressing
a quick pace. He goes out 2nd off the layoff for this and has a
right to improve. I am just not so sure he will. At 3/1 on the ML, I am going
to stand against him. He does have the ability to pop a big one, but I would
insist on a price with this one.
Pace Projection: I see Star
Harbour out front with Fort Loudon
hounding him from the inside, and Singanothersong on his flank from the outside. I
am banking on either Singanothersong putting him away at the top of the lane and holding off the closers,
or having Apriority closing best late to swoop by for the win.
The Play: I am going to lean on Singanothersong
and Apriority. I will key both in the exacta and Multi-race wagers. I will also
ladder Singanothersong across the board.
As always, best of luck everyone. I hope I helped solidify
your own opinions or turned you onto a different idea you may not have thought
of. Have a winning day, guys.