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  • The Great War is off the Derby trail following poor finish in the BattagliaPosted 4 days ago
  •  Royal Son scores in the John Battaglia Memorial.Posted 4 days ago
  • Stellar Wind an impressive winner of the Santa Ysabel. Posted 4 days ago
  • Far Right shoots up the rail again to score in the Southwest Stakes. Posted 11 days ago
  • Khozan demolishes a Gulfstream Park allowance field to remain perfect in two starts. Posted 11 days ago
  • No beating North Slope as he returns to dirt a winner in the Evening Attire. Posted 11 days ago
  •  International Star scrapes the paint to win the Risen Star.Posted 11 days ago
  • I'm A Chatterbox speaks loud and clear in the Rachel Alexandra. Posted 12 days ago
  • Itsaknockout wins the Fountain of Youth on the DQ of Upstart. Posted 12 days ago
  •  Chocolate Ride sneaks away in the Fair Grounds Handicap.Posted 12 days ago
Breeding

Kentucky Derby 2015 - Itsaknockout Pedigree Profile

The latest newcomer to the Kentucky Derby Trail scored a technical knock out in the Fountain of Youth. Will his pedigree knock him out of Derby conten...

Best of the Blogs

Undefeated Watch


  # UndefeatedTrainer/Last Win
 6Promise Me Silver
Silver City
Bret Calhoun
Two Altazano
 4Dortmund
Big Brown
Bob Baffert
Robert B. Lewis
 3Blofeld
Quality Road
Todd Pletcher
Nashua
 3Itsaknockout
Lemon Drop Kid
Todd Pletcher
Fountain of Youth
 3Lady Eli
Divine Park
Chad Brown
BC Juvenile Fillies Turf
 3Mr. Jordan
Kantharos
Eddie Plesa, Jr.
Smooth Air Stakes
 3Ocho Ocho Ocho
Street Sense
James Cassidy
Delta Downs Jackpot

DerbyWars Leaderboard

DerbyWars January 2015 Leaderboard

Active Power Rankings

Active power rankings are updated each Monday night.  Also visit the Kentucky Derby 2015 contender rankings.
 

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Pace Projector Plays

TimeformUS Pace Projector Plays

Thursday, March 5

Coldest Paces of the Day
(favors frontrunners)

Aqueduct, Race 5
Laurel Park, Race 2
Gulfstream, Race 9

Hottest Paces of the Day
(favors closers)

Gulfstream, Race 4
Santa Anita, Race 8
Oaklawn, 
Race 3

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What the Horse Racing Nation is talking about...

Not the most handsome fellow with that funny looking noggin, musta got his looks from the Dam side family because his daddy was a STUD. He's Curlin's son and I love him anyways and if he keeps winning no one will notice, Lol!!!
  • Mark Kennedy via Disqus · He's got a ugly noggin but know what's special about him. Now I wouldn't want thi in a quarter horse or everyday horse but a lot of top race horses gave this. Drum roll. I like the whites of his eyes. He's got that pysco look · 29 seconds ago
Here is a fun futures bet. Toast of New York is the futures favorite for the 10 million dollar world cup at 5/1. He is also 30-1 to win the breeders cup classic. Osborne said that this year assuming that ToNY comes out of Dubai in good order, that he will run a few more preps in his breeders cup campaign on dirt. Remember he has run on dirt one time, and took 2nd in last years BCC. 30-1 seems like a pretty good deal considering last year he beat the both Chrome and Shared Belief.
Rewatched the 2011 BCJV...Forgot how good that race was.
  • Sullivan · And how great an impact it had! When the BCJ is run in the east, a lot of horses from the east run and make it a better decider of the future. While Santa Anita is a great venue, the trainers have voted with the entry box and they voted Churchill. · 1 hour ago
It's supposed to be a "bettable" race, but is it this year? Read More
  • Show All 5 Comments
  • amino998 · The racing secretary’s hands are conveniently tied by the “No horse shall be assigned more than 126 lbs” in the race conditions :) Shared Belief 124 and Sr. Quisqueyano 116 were weighted for the Gulfstream Park Handicap as well. Sr. Q gets 10 lbs out West. · 4 hours ago
  • ruffianzenyatta · It takes a champion to battle back the way Game on Dude did in the 2011 Big Cap. · 1 hour ago
Soon you will all know the name Prospect Park , if you don't know it now , you will !
Chamois worked 5f today, March 5th, in 1:03:80 (b). It was the seconds fastest of 4 works at that distance.
Lubash worked 5f today, March 5th, in 1:05:00 (b). It was the third fastest of 4 works at that distance.
Sea Queen worked 4f today, March 5th, in 51 seconds flat. It was the fourth fastest of 13 works at that distance.
Woodfield Springs worked 4f today, March 5th, in 50:60 (b) over a firm turf course. It was the ninth fastest of 15 works at that distance.
Mutin worked 4f today, March 5th, in 50:65 (b). It was the tenth fastest of 15 works at that distance.
Wicked Strong worked 3f today, March 5th, in 35:90. It was the fastest of 3 works at that distance.
West Coast Belle worked 4f today, March 5th, in 47:40. It was the fastest of 33 works at that distance.
Initially i conceded this race to Shared Belief,just like everyone else. But after looking at the entries,from a horse i had winning the race at about 93 % positive. I change the odds to about 80 % . The presence of Moreno makes this race a bit more interesting. A loose speed is always dangerous,especially when he is fresh and has some quality to him. Unless the ghost of Bejarano comes alive and he goes after Moreno,with absolutely no regard for his own. Moreno will be loose in here. Makes it a bit tough for the Hall of Famer. He now will have to use Shared Belief a bit more than he would of wanted to. Not saying that he will lose. But the chances sure increased with this entry. Never been a fan of The Rajin Cajun and his Amateuristic attacks in an attempt to Trash Talk. But i think that he has this guy on as much a tilt mode as possible. Nathan now i can get into the race,rather than be a spectator.
  • Show All 16 Comments
  • vodkak · I have a very good understanding of wagering and since you don't know me you have no idea what types of bets I make yet you proclaim to. I will post a bet the day you post one of your bets which you have never done. You calling anyone a poltroon is ludicrous as you are worse than the pot calling the kettle black. You add nothing to this board other than your daily self aggrandizement. · 3 hours ago
  • cedar · I didn't see Moreno's name on the list for this race until today and am very excited to see him here as the only other G1 caliber horse besides SB. I think he has a legitimate shot with his early speed. Will hopefully make for a more interesting race. · 2 hours ago
POST TIME 7:30PM EST – The last two races at Santa Anita today are very attractive from a wagering perspective.  I landed on the nightcap which features a 12-horse field of filly and mare claimers going 5.5 furlongs.  At this distance, I become a little less concerned about pace and more ...Read More
  • Show All 10 Comments
  • Mary Z. · Good spot for the 2. 2,11,4,1. More later, maybe. If someone else posted already about the 3, sorry. 3 scratched. · 4 hours ago
  • mshutty · Thanks for the heads up on scratches. Text and wagers adjusted to reflect the early scratches from this field. Odds just before post will dictate whether or not I make the wagers posted. Going to need good value as I am less enthusiastic about this race post the scratches. · 3 hours ago
The decision to run Ocean Knight in the Tampa Bay Derby sets up a showdown against 2014 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Carpe Diem.Read More
  • Show All 12 Comments
  • DavidBenning · Long post: bare with me If you want to see how two extremely similar full-field MSW races for 3yos at a mile run only 2 races apart on the same day (Feb.7) at GP can nevertheless be run with wildly different pace characteristics (producing similar final times and final Beyers) check out the races that Tampa Bay Derby contenders Danzig Moon and Great Stuff enter off of; it is a great, almost perplexing, study in contrasts. I thought Super Collossal, while no doubt the wild card in the race, was going to be an underlay as the 3rd betting choice because this field is miles better than his visually-pleasing Sapling victory in which he produced that late summer 87 Beyer. In hindsight, his 10-1 odds in the BC Juvy was likewise an underlay. His departure, however, opens the door for Diving Rod to control a dawdling pace and finish off the upset this time. Even with that and being a homefield favorite of sorts, I expect the 3yo son of Tapit to leave the gates at a decent number given the 1-2 punch that the favorites will no doubt throw-down on the field. I'm a fan of Ocean Knight's gutty, 5-wide victory over the frontrunner, but let's not forget that Divining Rod was only making his 3rd start in the Sam F Davis and like Knight his first stakes appearance. In spite of leaving the gate that time at nearly 30-1, Rod is - in reality - bred to the nines; while his connections must have been expecting a turf monster as the son of Tapit and the millionaire turfer Precious Kitten, Rod's turf Tomilson figure is actually a paltry 270 thanks to his dam sire, Catineus, for whom Precious Kitten was a complete anomaly relative to her turf prowess. Catineus may be holding sway over Diving Rod in order to balance the books (lol). Whatever the case, it underlines the fact that breeding is not a window to the equine soul. Precious kitten was expertly bred by Ken Ramsey and won nearly 2 million under the tutelage of the late, great Bobby Frankel, the majority of which came at a distance of ground over the turf. Is it really inconceivable that Divining Rod could take the necessary jumps forward to be not only a Kentucky Derby entrant in 2 months time, but a winner of that greatest of races? His breeding says no. Emphatically no. While Carpe Diem (the class of the race) is training up a storm and Ocean Knight was probably 5 lengths the best in the Davis, I don't view now as the time to call Divining Rod's last a fluke and write hm off from contention, especially if he stays north of 6-1 in the wagering. I do view the odds as a potential indicator because it is a reflection of public infatuation and as such, the more of it that there is (in the case of Rod) the less I am inclined to believe my own hype. It's that simple. If the public is attuned to what I am than I am not seeing much. For example, Ocean Knight's head victory in last should be viewed as a "much the best" win. If the odds don't reflect that most basic of facts, something is amiss. I expect to see that separation in their respective odds. Speaking of Knight there is the matter of his much slower works since coming home much the best. It has to be noted. I am somewhat inclined to think that prior to the Davis the connections were in "hurry-up" mode with this strapper in order to get him up to spec with the rest of his class. With only one race going into the Davis, they had to hit every note just right to get him where he is right now. Using his works to make up some of that ground makes sense. After his Davis win and ascension to Derby "contender' status, it's quite possible that they are slowing down and moving into a more managed phase of his training, using "maintenance" works instead of works designed to propel him forward. That's one possible explanation. However, Knight was visibly tired after the Davis win, and rightfully so - he was five wide all the way and it was a substantial hike in class and distance. I still would ha · 4 hours ago
  • Pick6Sam · Prospect Park will be a great bet in this one! · 3 hours ago
Nathan back where he belongs in a more suitable distance. Field is tough,but multi speeds in the race work to his advantage.
Unbeaten Dortmund heads a field of 10 Kentucky Derby hopefuls in Saturday’s Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes, an important steppingstone to the $1 million Santa Anita Derby on April 4.Read More
  • Show All 6 Comments
  • MarkKennedy · might hurt him in the derby trying to navigate 20 horses a horse like that if he gets stopped or slowed he will lose all chance · 8 hours ago
  • papine01 . via Disqus · If LN can rate he will give Dortmund all he can handle. · 4 hours ago
Something new about his workouts?
Shared Belief stands over the expected Big Cap field like LeBron James balling with a group of kindergartners. Read More
  • Show All 23 Comments
  • Jay Harrison via Disqus · Wouldn't take Moreno off his ankle chip surgery and last place finish in the Classic. Would have to see at least a race from him before I'd go near him on top. · 10 hours ago
  • smarty1968 · What a joke of a race. When is Rome going to race him out of California? · 4 hours ago
Probabilities: each race has about 125 or so booking points. YOUR handicapping (just like the process in let's say GOLF when a real duffer gets a BIG break as compared to a season pro) establishes the projected probabilities (PLURAL). Like the concept of aptitude suggests that given an infinite amount of time, all evaluated will be able to attain whatever effort is needed for competence, assigning projected probabilities mean that the capper makes a line of ANY horse that has anywhere near the chance of getting there. THEN, one waits and sees what the crowd suggests their assessment of the probabilities are on that same 125-7 range. Close to post (when the odds come close to stabilizing) one then compares their PROJECTED to the OFFERED probabilities and looks for the underlays, the pushes and the underlays WHILE evaluating how much in the pool is not covered. IF you can set a Dutch that covers anything much more than 65% in the pool, you cash all day long. Exotic constructions varies a bit from this since many a non-contender has to be considered.

Poll of the Day

Who will win the San Felipe? 

  • Pain and Misery
  • Lord Nelson
  • Ocho Ocho Ocho
  • The Gomper
  • Bolo
  • Dortmund
  • Kenjisstorm
  • Sir Samson
  • Prospect Park
  • Pulmarack

Plays of the Day

VEGASJIM1952

SA 3/5/2015 R6 - Prep for ECHO EDDIE STAKES on April 4

 Since reading that this race was written as a "prep" for a minor Cal Bred Stake race I am going with the #6 Grazen Sky as the now horse who exploded last out in 1:09.4. Two horses that beat him are entered in here with one coming off a layoff a...
mshutty

SA 3/5/2015 R8 - Miller's "other" horse moves up in SA 8th

POST TIME 7:30PM EST – The last two races at Santa Anita today are very attractive from a wagering perspective.  I landed on the nightcap which features a 12-horse field of filly and mare claimers going 5.5 furlongs.  At this distance, I b...
mdracing69

SA 3/5/2015 R3 - High Intensity getting better for Cassidy

Thursday's 3rd race (1:57pm PT) from Santa Anita Park is a $56k Maiden Special Weight event for CA-bred or sired fillies and mares traveling one mile on the turf course (rail at 30 feet). #3 High Intensity (3-1) exits an improved 3rd in a local $75k ...

Graded Stakes - Race Replays

 

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